Heading into the final week of February, several marquee free agents remain available. However, one name that’s no longer available is Cody Bellinger. Cody Bellinger has reportedly re-joined the Cubs on a three-year deal, ending his time on the open market.
Related: 2023-24 MLB Offseason Recap: Detroit Tigers
A Look at Bellinger
Last offseason, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs after what was a brutal 2021 and 2022 with the Dodgers. Marred with injuries, Bellinger posted subpar numbers in both of those campaigns.
However, swing adjustments and a focus on the lower half gave Bellinger a newfound stroke at the plate last season. Bellinger batted .307/.365/.525 with 26 home runs, 56 extra-base hits, and also 20 stolen bases.
That campaign helped Bellinger win the 2023 NL Comeback of the Year Award.
Bellinger was a key contributor for the Cubs last season and no one will doubt that. However, some strange numbers from Bellinger’s 2023 could explain why the 28-year-old sat on the market for so long and why his exit velocity numbers — which were sky-high just a few years ago — were so low.
For one, Bellinger — once one of the game’s premier fastball hitters — actually didn’t do as great against velocity as compared to the past. Bellinger’s -1 Run Value against four-seam fastballs paled in comparison to sliders (+10) and changeups (+12), the latter two he crushed last season (per Statcast).
Second, Bellinger’s batting average numbers on pitches outside the zone were, let’s just say, interesting. The returning Cub finished tied for 10th in the Majors in hits outside of the zone along with Masataka Yoshida and Randy Arozarena.
And, some of those hits just weren’t pretty.
Bellinger’s turned into more of an aggressive hitter over the years. While he does have a great hit tool and the ability to get at balls on the outer half and poke it the other way, the nature of some of those hits could be an indication of incoming regression.
On the other hand, Bellinger’s knack for locking on and squaring up balls is something that can’t be ignored.
Per ESPN, the Cubs agreed to a three-year deal with Cody Bellinger worth $80MM. Bellinger will receive $30MM in 2024 and has opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal.
Analysis
Bellinger was arguably the most puzzling player available in free agency this winter.
The 28-year-old put up numbers that baseball fans haven’t seen from Bellinger since 2020. Not to mention, his speed and above-average defensive value only add to his value.
However, the injury questions and whether regression will hit in 2024 are legitimate concerns. Hence, why Bellinger didn’t come close to the reported $200MM+ price tag that was linked to him earlier in the winter. Thus, the 2024 campaign will be a pivotal one for both Bellinger and the Cubs.
Now as far as the Cubs are concerned, Chicago’s lineup is significantly better if Bellinger can produce similar numbers. While the Cubs did receive 20+ home run campaigns from Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Christopher Morel last season, Bellinger led the Cubs last season in OPS (.881) and wRC+ (134).
Much of that was thanks to his ability to get on base and his power. With Bellinger back, the Cubs lineup just became a bit deeper.