It’s May but trade season has already begun in Major League Baseball. The first major trade of the regular season reportedly went down on May 3, as the Marlins are nearing a trade with the Padres, one that will send Luis Arraez to San Diego. It’ll mark the second time in less than 24 months that Arraez will be moved.
The Padres’ Return
- INF Luis Arraez (.299/.347/.372, 9 XBH over 33 G)
The Marlins acquired infielder Luis Arraez a little over a year ago from the Twins in a major deal that saw Pablo Lopez go to Minnesota. The move gave the Marlins a talented hitter with a knack for finding holes in the field and pushing his way on base. That’s exactly what he did with Miami.
Arraez notched career-highs in hits (203) and home runs (10) with Miami last season and his .393 OBP was his best over a season in which he played 100 or more games.
Armed with quick hands, Arraez rarely misses at the plate. That’s been the case this season, as the ex-Marlin posted an elite 9.1 Whiff% thus far in 2024. Among qualified hitters, that figure is second-best behind Steven Kwan (7.3%).
But while Arraez does have arguably the best hit tool in the Majors, there are holes in his game. Arraez’s sprint speed ranked in the 26th percentile this season and he owns a career Outs Above Average of -46.
Arraez joins a loaded infield that includes Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth. And, this trade between the Marlins and Padres comes weeks after it was revealed that San Diego attempted to acquire Luis Arraez and Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins.
The Marlins’ Return
- RP Woo-Suk Go (1.46 WHIP, 15 K over 12.1 IP (AA))
- 1B/OF Nathan Martorella (.294/.392/.435, 8 XBH in 23 G (AA))
- OF Dillon Head (.237/.317/.366, 9 XBH in 21 G (A))
- OF Jakob Marsee (.179/.333/.321, 8 XBH in 23 G (AA))
The Marlins have had bullpen issues this spring and Miami will get a reliever back in Woo-Suk Go. San Diego originally signed the righty out of the KBO this past offseason.
Go has been throwing in Double-A San Antonio during his acclimation to American baseball. In Korea, Go worked with a mid-90s fastball, along with a curveball and cutter.
However, the two marquee pieces in this deal are Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee. Both were rated in the top ten of the Padres’ system per MLB.com, with Head coming in at #6 and Marsee at #9.
Head was drafted 25th in last year’s MLB Draft and reports lauded his speed. In fact, MLB.com gave Head an 80 grade for speed on the 20-80 scale, a real indication of how fast he is. But to this point, he hasn’t hit for much power. As of May 3, he owns an ISO of .129 on the season, below the .150 average baseline.
Jakob Marsee, meanwhile, fits the analytically-driven bent that appears to be the tone for the future of the Marlins. Marsee’s hit for roughly average power in his MiLB career, as indicated by his .155 career ISO.
The 23-year-old does have a career OBP of .406, though, thanks to a plus eye at the plate. Marsee has the potential to be a leadoff hitter and one who can push singles into doubles. Last season, Marsee stole 46 bases.
Analysis
There are several moving parts in this deal, including why did the Marlins make this move now and why Miami didn’t get one of the Padres’ elite prospects for such a good hitter.
Let’s start with the first one. Miami’s off to a 9-24 start, second-worst in the National League amidst a myriad of pitching injuries. Arraez will make a hefty $10.6MM in total this season and that price will very likely go up in 2025 in the infielder’s final year of arbitration.
If the Marlins aren’t going to win now, why not trade a piece that the Marlins won’t be winning with to get additional assets?
On the second point, Arraez’s bat is an incredible weapon. Yet, the 27-year-old is a poor defender at second, is a fringe runner, has well-below-average power, and doesn’t walk a lot. Despite his plus-plus contact tool, there are weaknesses in Arraez’s game.
For the Padres, though, Arraez is poised to provide immense value when it comes to run production potential. Arraez doesn’t walk a lot but his hit too has helped him amass a career OBP of .377. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado around, having someone who can get on base has the potential to make a deep offense on paper even deeper.