The Royals lost 106 games last season and had a myriad of issues on the mound. Kansas City pitchers last year gave up the third-most amount of earned runs (809), but the Royals have looked for upgrades this winter. The Royals added one big starter in November, and now Kansas City has another in Seth Lugo. Here’s a closer look at what Lugo brings to the Royals.
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A Look at Lugo
When Seth Lugo signed with the Padres in the winter of 2022, it was a move that allowed the veteran righty to return to the rotation after the Mets kept him in the bullpen due to injury concerns.
In what was his first real season as an MLB starter in six years, Lugo proved that his stuff plays in the rotation.
The 34-year-old did see a somewhat predictable drop in fastball velocity, but it was still an effective pitch thanks to his good command of the pitch and ability to pound it up in the zone.
Lugo’s best pitch, though, is his signature curveball with plenty of depth and movement. It’s a pitch that he’ll throw up — although not always on purpose — and down one that can trip up hitters, and it netted him a fair amount of whiffs. The new Royal finished 11th in the Majors last season in total whiffs (88) off the pitch and the third-most groundballs (70). Only Rich Hill (73) and Charlie Morton (88) had more.
The 34-year-old Lugo can also work with a sinker, slider, sweeper, and changeup that he used with more frequency in 2023 and was a change-of-pace pitch against lefties. His changeup netted a 33.8% Whiff% rate this past season.
Given his eclectic arsenal, highlighted by the curveball, his other breaking stuff, and change, it’s not hard to see how Lugo had success in 2023. He never got overly predictable early in counts — for reference, he used his fastball 33.5% of the time in 0-0 counts — and can keep hitters off balance.
All in all, Lugo struck out 140 batters over a career-high 146.1 IP and played a key role in a Padres rotation that was one of the best in baseball this past year. Now, he joins a Royals team that also reportedly added reliever Chris Stratton on December 12.
Lugo ranked #13 on our list of the best free agent pitchers available this winter. The Royals reportedly signed Lugo to a three-year, $45MM deal with an opt-out after 2025.
Analysis
Last winter, we tabbed Lugo as one of our best under-the-radar signings of the 2022-23 offseason. Much of that had to do with our belief that the veteran starter had the stuff to be effective. The big question would be whether Lugo would hold up physically.
Aside from a month-long stint on the IL thanks to a calf strain, Lugo did just fine in that regard.
Seth Lugo now joins a Royals team that already made one major addition to their starting rotation in Kyle Wright. However, that move was one geared towards 2025 and beyond, as Wright will likely not pitch this upcoming season.
While the Royals are not expected to contend in 2024, the reality is that the rotation needed some long-term solutions to get Kansas City on the right track. Royals starters owned the fourth-worst ERA (5.12) last season and not much of that was due to luck.
Lugo isn’t an ace, but he is a reliable arm who threw at least six innings in 17 of his 26 starts in 2023 and does possess very good stuff.
Lugo will join a group that includes young hurlers Brady Singer and Cole Ragans, the latter of whom was one of the best starters in the second half. Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV are other SP options.