2024 Fantasy Baseball: Five Pitchers to be Wary Of

Pitching in fantasy baseball is not an easy thing to come by, as a lot — including health and command — can affect whether a hurler has a great or poor season. Thus, it’s also a good idea to avoid risk as much as possible. With that said, here’s a look at five pitchers heading into the 2024 fantasy baseball season that look appealing but also concern us to a certain extent.

Kyle Bradish

The Orioles leaned heavily on Kyle Bradish last season and the 27-year-old delivered. Bradish went 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA and struck out 168 batters over 168.2 1P. And, his 2.83 ERA was fourth-best in all of baseball. However, there were some signs that fantasy baseball players should be wary of heading into 2024.

For one, Bradish’s BABIP (.271) and LOB% (79.1%) were well above average and that wouldn’t be as much of a concern if the 27-year-old had elite stuff.

Bradish is a good pitcher but his four-seam/sinker/slider/changeup/curve pitch profile and below-average Whiff% figures from 2023 are a concern heading into 2024.

Dylan Cease

White Sox ace Dylan Cease was one of the most desirable starters in fantasy drafts in 2023 after a breakout campaign the year before. However, things didn’t go to plan for Cease in 2023. While Cease did finish eighth in strikeouts (214) among starters, the 28-year-old yielded more contact and more home runs. That led to a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2023, far below his 2022 (2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) figures.

The combination of Cease’s command troubles and the fact that the White Sox — who are poised to hold on to the righty entering the spring — are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year nerf the 28-year-old’s value.

That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value, as he’ll net strikeouts provided he stays healthy. For those who draft Cease, just don’t expect the sparkling ERA he had in 2022 nor double-digit wins.

Hunter Greene

When healthy, Hunter Greene has the potential to be a dominant force. Unfortunately, injuries have stymied him in recent years. Shoulder problems limited Greene to 24 starts in 2022, while a right hip strain shut the 24-year-old down for two months last year.

Greene’s got one of the game’s best fastballs and can work in a slider and changeup, as well.

However, health and command will be the two key factors to whether Greene can meet his potential starting in 2024.

Kodai Senga

In his first season in the Majors, Kodai Senga proved to be a hit with the Mets. Senga finished in the top 15 among starters in strikeouts (202) and posted a 2.98 ERA on the season. Much of his success can be attributed to his forkball, which netted a Whiff% of 59.5%

Like Bradish, Senga posted a ridiculously-high 80.4% LOB%. Senga does, however, have elite stuff. On the other hand, Senga’s command is much more of a concern.

Last season, the 31-year-old posted a below-average BB% of 11.1% and one has to wonder whether that, plus the fact that hitters know what to expect from Senga, will mean regression in 2024.

Marcus Stroman

New Yankees right-hander Marcus Stroman looked like a potential Cy Young candidate for half of 2023 before right hip inflammation knocked him out for over a month last summer. In total last year, Stroman went 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 136.2 IP.

On paper, Stroman in Yankee Stadium is a good fit. The 32-year-old’s got the command, and done a strong job in terms of getting ground balls. Not to mention, Stroman does pitch well in tight spots. On the other hand, Stroman doesn’t have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner playing behind him anymore.

2014-21: .258 BA/.693 OPS/.306 BABIP
2022-23: .233 BA/.652 OPS/.278 BABIP

Those two helped Stroman — a heavy pitch-to-contact pitcher — out immensely in 2023, so 2024 could mean more runs allowed even if the 32-year-old is in a better position to accumulate wins.

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