Yes, the two teams with the best regular-season records in the American League will meet in the 2026 ALDS. Tampa Bay punched its ticket by winning the AL East, while the Yankees got here by defeating the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Round.
Scheduled Starters & Start Times
- Game 1: Gerrit Cole (Yankees) vs. Drew Rasmussen (Rays
- Game 2: Cam Schlittler (Yankees) vs. TBD
- Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
- Game 4: TBD vs. TBD
- Game 5: TBD vs. TBD
Game 1 will take place at 6:30 PM ET on October 3, with Game 2 happening two days later at 8 PM ET. The series will shift to New York for Game 3 on October 7 at 8 PM ET. Game 4 would be one night later at 8 PM ET. The fifth & final game, if necessary, would be on October 10 at 8 PM ET.
All games will be on TBS and truTV.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 739 | 736 |
| Home Runs | 223 | 169 |
| OPS | .720 | .728 |
| Whiff% | 27.1% | 20.7% |
| Hard Hit% | 41.6% | 34.6% |
Ben Rice was one of several key contributors for the Yankees during the AL Wild Card Round. Rice was the only player in the round to hit two home runs and drive in six. Additionally, he tied for the postseason round lead in hits.
It was an all-out blitz on the Red Sox’s bullpen in that round, quite the feat given that Boston entered the playoffs with the best regular-season reliever ERA in the league. Cody Bellinger got his pound of flesh in with a three-run home run that was the dagger in Game 2.
Rookie George Lombard Jr. notched four total hits, while Luis Garcia Jr. had three, one of which was a home run.
It was a good round. There is always nitpicking, though. Spencer Jones went a respectable 2-for-8. But both he and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had two of the 10 highest Whiff% in the last round. But as we’ve noted multiple times over the year, that part is just not going to go away in Jones’ game.
The big question will be whether Aaron Judge is going to be active for the ALDS. As of this writing, his status is unclear.
As for the Rays, Tampa Bay’s offense gets it done in several different ways.
Obviously, the big one is Junior Caminero, who took a huge step forward as he became a significantly strong walk threat in 2026. But aside from him, Yandy Diaz is one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters. Chandler Simpson is chaotic, and the likes of Jonathan Aranda, Jonny DeLuca, and Cedric Mullins can all affect the game.
Many of these players are plus contact hitters. Tampa Bay had the lowest Whiff% in the Majors, meaning that the Yankees’ defense has to be sharp.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.30 | 3.51 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.15 | 3.99 |
| Strikeouts | 1450 | 1322 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .224 | .229 |
| Chase% | 30.3% | 32.8% |
The Yankees and Rays finished first & third, respectively, in starters’ ERA this season. Heading into the ALDS, it’s now a question as to which approach will work better, between the Yankees’ power pitching & the Rays’ finesse.
We’ll start with the Yankees, who opted to have Gerrit Cole start Game 1 after his services were not needed against the Red Sox. And instead of Carlos Rodon, who dominated the Rays in his final regular-season start, it will be Cam Schlittler on long rest for Game 2.
Rodon was masterful down the stretch, which makes the alignment interesting. However, putting Schlittler in for Game 2 makes more than enough sense. Should the series go five, he would be available for that contest. Plus, Schlittler was rather good in the Wild Card Round.
The Rays, meanwhile, have a well-balanced pitching staff, one with plenty of options, even without the injured Shane McClanahan.
Drew Rasmussen predictably gets the Game 1 start. The ace of the Rays’ staff, Rasmussen is one of the best finesse pitchers in the game. He can throw hard but gets outs with changing angles and possesses one of the best cutters in the game. He finished 11th in the Majors in HR/9 (.73), a sense of how good he can limit hard contact.
After that, the Rays have options. Nick Martinez was hit around over the final week of 2026, including in New York against the Yankees. Freddy Peralta‘s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month. His .96 ERA was the fourth-best in MLB over September.
There’s also Ian Seymour, one of the funkiest pitchers in the game. But also, one of the best at getting chase.
Our Prediction
We’re going to take the Yankees in this series.
In a playoff round, it’s better, in our eyes, to bet on power, both at the plate & on the mound. However, this should be a close one.
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