The Blue Jays came into the 2026 campaign with high expectations. Toronto won the AL pennant in 2025, came within a few outs of their third World Series title, and walked into last season with a very strong case on paper. But by the end of 2026, the Jays finished with 79 wins and a last-place finish in the AL East.
The Offense
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 648 | 30th |
| Home Runs | 152 | 30th |
| OPS | .691 | t-28th |
| Whiff% | 22.2% | 2nd |
| Hard Hit% | 34.0% | 30th |
The Pitching
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.22 | 15th |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.58 | 7th |
| Strikeouts | 1410 | 10th |
| Whiff% | 26.0% | 9th |
| Chase% | 31.5% | 8th |
The Good
For as difficult the 2026 season was, one thing was apparent: the Blue Jays nailed the offseason last winter. Toronto added Dylan Cease, Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, and Kazuma Okamoto, and all four were significant contributors.
We’ll start with Cease, a 2026 AL Cy Young finalist after what was a career season for the righty. Cease struck out 239 batters in 2026, fourth-most in the Majors and third in the American League. For much of his MLB career, Cease has always had the swing-and-miss stuff. It was all about avoiding the “big” mistake that dictated how well he did in a given season.
This past year, Cease did that. The lone blemish was a poor September, which coincided with a dip in velocity and an IL stint to end his season.
Rogers was a top setup man for years with the Giants, thanks in large part to being a unicorn reliever. The funky right-hander finished with a 1.77 ERA over 74 appearances. He was one of five Blue Jays to make at least 70 appearances, joining Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, Jeff Hoffman (split between MIN & TOR), and MLB leader Mason Fluharty.
He joined a bullpen that saw a sizable shift.
Hoffman started the year as the Blue Jays’ closer, months after he was unable to close out Game 7 of the 2025 World Series. Unfortunately, Hoffman couldn’t stick in that role for long. He pitched well outside of it, though, and that also opened the door for Louis Varland to take over.
Varland, acquired from Minnesota in 2025, had a reputation for being a much better reliever after several unsuccessful runs as a starter. His first run as a Major League closer couldn’t have gone much better, with 35 saves, 97 strikeouts, and a 1.27 ERA in 71 games.
As for the other two notable additions, Miles was a Rule 5 pick in 2025. Miles barely pitched thanks to injuries over his first four pro seasons, before he worked and pitched well in the AFL. He wound up being an ace reliever, as he posted a 2.73 ERA and struck out 93 over 95.2 IP.
That was a lot of innings, which wound up being the third-most among primary relievers (AJ Blubaugh and Chad Patrick led the league). Granted, part of that was because he did do some work in the rotation. But manager John Schneider gave Miles room to work in virtually every single role — and he thrived.
Okamoto, a top slugger in the NPB, was a big hit in Canada. He hit 33 home runs and 59 extra-base hits, and Okamoto was a menace against left-handed pitching.
What stung, though, was that aside from Okamoto, the Blue Jays’ offense was missing something.
The Bad
This graph illustrates pretty well why the Blue Jays’ offense just wasn’t productive enough in 2026.
When one takes into account that the Blue Jays finished dead last in the Majors in both home runs and runs scored, something clearly went wrong. And for a team that was one of baseball’s best offenses in ’25, a lot went wrong in ’26. Both George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were two of baseball’s biggest decliners, in terms of OPS.
For Springer, this shouldn’t come as much of a shock. He had an otherworldly campaign in 2025 with an OPS near 1.000. His .726 OPS in 2026 wasn’t actually too bad. But it was Guerrero Jr. who took the big hit, as injuries and several lengthy home run droughts dropped his numbers significantly.
However, the dip in offense wasn’t limited to those two. When the Blue Jays won the AL pennant in 2025, eight different hitters had at least a double-digit campaign. This past year? Five, with Okamoto being the only one to hit more than 15.
If there’s something to take solace in, it’s that the Blue Jays were constantly putting the ball in play. Guys like Ernie Clement and rookie Brett Bateman were masters at that. But in terms of power, where run production takes off, that was a big problem last season — and it cost the Blue Jays.
As for the pitching staff, there were some problems.
The Blue Jays’ rotation was battered with injuries. Trey Yesavage and Max Scherzer both missed significant time, while Jose Berrios didn’t throw a single pitch in 2026. It caused the Jays to get creative, adding veterans Patrick Corbin, Jameson Taillon, and Michael Lorenzen throughout the year.
Scherzer’s 2026, injuries aside, was a mixed bag. He was able to get hitters to expand out of the zone a lot but still owned an ERA north of 5.00. Toronto fans saw the best out of him this past September in his last start of the season against the Reds.
Early Projected Lineup for 2027
- C: Alejandro Kirk/Brandon Valenzuela
- 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- 2B: Ernie Clement
- 3B: Kazuma Okamoto
- SS: Andres Gimenez
- OF: Davis Schneider (LF), Brett Bateman (CF), Nathan Lukes (RF)
- DH: Anthony Santander
- SP: Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano, Trey Yesavage, Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Bloss
- RP: Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Chase Lee, Ricky Tiedemann, Brendan Cellucci
Toronto walked into the winter with some holes to fill.
Starting with the pitching staff, a rotation add or two would make sense. Jose Berrios had TJ surgery in the spring of 2026, and he won’t be a factor to start the year. Could Spencer Miles, who worked in the rotation at points last season, be more of a viable rotation option in 2027?
As for the lineup, there’s a clear need for pop. It’s just a matter of how the Blue Jays can get more, whether it’s from internal or external help.
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