Toronto’s aggressive offseason in 2024-25, coupled with an American League pennant in 2025, set the tone for the Blue Jays. Just before American Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays make the first big splash of the free agent market. Dylan Cease, one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, will reportedly join the Blue Jays.

A Look at Cease

This past year was a complicated season for Dylan Cease, who had the highest K/9 (11.5) in the Majors last year among qualified pitchers. Paring that qualification down to 100 innings, Cease had the fourth-best rate.

Cease struck out 215 batters for the Padres, the fifth straight year of 200+ strikeouts for the right-hander. He’s largely lived up to the hype that surrounded him both as a White Sox and Cubs prospect in the 2010s.

The 29-year-old Cease is somewhat of an analytics-driven dream for some teams. Cease possesses a four-seam fastball that generally sits in the mid-90s, has the appeal of having some cut on it, as well as one of the best sliders in baseball when he has the feel for it. A gyro slider that can drop out of the zone when commanded well.

That combination, coupled with a slurve-like sweeper, curveball, as well as a two-seamer and rarely-used slow changeup, gives Cease a diverse arsenal. And, with it, a lot of controllable outcomes.

More often than not, though, Cease will use the four-seamer and slider. The ex-Padres used that combination over 80% of the time in every season since 2022.

Despite the pure strikeout numbers, Cease ranked 68th out of the 126 starters who threw at least 100 innings in wOBA (.313).

Why does that matter? Well, for one, wOBA is a weighted measure of on-base percentage. Cease conceded a lot of runners, mainly through walks. Walks have been a problem for Cease over the years; he racked up 10+% BB% rates in his final two seasons with the White Sox. This past season, he walked batters 9.8% of the time.

The other issue, somewhat expected with a power pitcher, is the home run ball. Cease has been prone to throwing the “cement mixer” slider, a pitch that can just spin itself over the middle of the plate.

Overall, though, Cease has produced roughly average batted-ball metrics.

Cease’s fastball, much like the slider, gets a fair amount of swing-and-miss. But on the flip side, 10 four-seamers became home runs balls in 2025.

Per ESPN, the Blue Jays will sign Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM deal.

Analysis

The Blue Jays entered the offseason with a rotation that was mostly set. Kevin Gausman has one more left on his deal, with Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber also on the roster. Those three were the leaned-upon pitchers in the Blue Jays’ run to the final-two in 2025.

However, how the Blue Jays filled out that rotation remained to be seen. Max Scherzer became a free agent, while the Jays still have Bowden Francis, Eric Lauer, and Jose Berrios on the roster.

The addition of Cease doesn’t change expectations for the Jays; Toronto entered the winter as, very much, one of the favorites in the American League. But as noted before, Cease is an impressive pitcher who can elevate a rotation. And, he’s getting paid like an ace.

It does, though, ensure a couple of things. One, Cease adds another ace-like pitcher who can make the Blue Jays rotation better. Two, with Bieber and Gausman having one year left before becoming free agents, it means less uncertainity for 2027 and beyond.

Moving to the Padres for a minute, this is why the team signed Canadian Nick Pivetta in the winter. That contract was something the Padres likely weren’t going to come close to matching. San Diego was more than willing to push the luxury tax threshold as much as possible with Peter Seidler in charge.

Since then, the Padres have been less aggressive in free agency.

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