Nick Pivetta was arguably the best starter left on the free agent board on February 12. The 31-year-old right-hander was one of the game’s top strikeout pitchers from 2023-24 but has his flaws. After a winter sitting on the market, Pivetta now has a home. The Padres have reportedly added Nick Pivetta to their rotation, on a four-year deal.
A Look at Pivetta
Among starting pitchers, Nick Pivetta was one of the more effective ones, in terms of netting whiffs and strikeouts. Had Pivetta had enough starts, Pivetta would have ranked in the top-20 of MLB (min. 200 IP from 2023-24) in strikeouts. However, it hasn’t been easy for the 31-year-old over the years.
Pivetta was a productive, yet unspectacular starter during his time with the Phillies and Red Sox from 2017-22. However, in 2023, Pivetta struggled mightily in May, getting moved to the bullpen. He would return later in the year with a new offering, a sweeper, that gave Pivetta a sorely-needed weapon against same-sided hitters.
Right-handed hitters went from a .723 OPS in 2022, to .606 in 2023. It wasn’t by accident. However, in 2024, right-handed batters slashed .271/.304/.510 (.814 OPS), far from ideal and significantly worse than the .610 OPS against lefties. Hence, the quandary MLB teams were in with Pivetta.
The 31-year-old right-hander, when clicking, is an elite strikeout pitcher thanks to two main pitchers: his four-seamer and curveball.
Pivetta’s fastball has elite induced movement; 19.9” mean IVB that ranked among the best in the game. His fastball, on its own, can lead to whiffs. But, he can also set it up his curveball that breaks to the glove side and is an ace weapon against left-handed batters. The curveball has well-above-average vertical movement, making it a pitch that can be used both in and out of the zone.
However, the sweeper — while effective at times — doesn’t have plus movement. Additionally, the pitch often backed up on him, leading to stay in the zone too much on occasion. Pivetta gave up 10 home runs off the sweeper in 2024.
Which, led to poor barrel rates for Pivetta. Pivetta’s Barrel% was in the double-digits in 2023 and 2024, below-average.
Command troubles have often led to issues for Pivetta over the years, which affected his walk rates. But with the sweeper, it can also lead to problems in the zone.
Per reports, the Padres will sign Nick Pivetta to a four-year deal worth $55MM. Pivetta was qualified by the Red Sox this past November, meaning Boston will get MLB Draft pick compensation.
Analysis
The Padres have been cautious spenders this winter, amidst reports of the team looking to potentially shed salary. But despite rumors of Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Michael King moving, none of the three have.
San Diego won’t have Joe Musgrove for 2025 after UCL reconstruction surgery, meaning Pivetta should slot in his place. And, Pivetta will take on heightened importance after the 2025 campaign. Cease and King are set to become free agents and it’s very likely both will price themselves out of San Diego.
What this moves means for Stephen Kolek, who the team said was going to be stretched out, or other names on the roster bubble — Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron — remains to be seen.
But for right now, a top-four of Pivetta, Cease, King, and Yu Darvish looks pretty good on paper. The addition of the ex-Red Sox gives the Padres three pitchers who ranked in the top 28 of the game last season in strikeouts.
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