It’s rather amazing what a difference a year can make for a MLB franchise. That sentiment was very true for the Baltimore Orioles last season, when the O’s ripped 83 wins — 31 more than the team’s total in 2021 — in what can now be looked upon as a franchise-altering campaign.
This year, the Reds look like the carbon copy of the 2022 Baltimore Orioles. But, can this young Cincinnati team actually make the playoffs this season? Let’s take a closer look at this Reds squad.
A Look at the Reds
To say that this season is a vast improvement for the Reds franchise would be a massive understatement. The 2022 Reds were an abysmal team from an overall point of view. While there were bright spots — the emergence of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, among those — the Reds won just 62 games.
It was largely expected to be a rough season for the Reds. Cincinnati failed to make the playoffs the year prior and made wholesale changes to re-align its core for the future. Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez were shipped to Seattle, and ace Luis Castillo joined them in the summer of 2022. Sonny Gray was also exiled from Cincinnati, as he and Tyler Mahle were both moved in separate deals to the Twins over a six-month span. Not to mention, Nick Castellanos and Wade Miley exited via free agency.
While those deals did provide temporary pain to a Reds franchise that made the playoffs just two years earlier, it did give Cincinnati ammunition for the future. The Reds netted left-hander Brandon Williamson and OF Jake Fraley from the Suarez/Winker deal, and Spencer Steer and talented hitting prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the Mahle deal. Infield prospect Noelvi Marte came over via the Castillo deal.
Put all those names along with a young core that includes the aforementioned young starters in Greene and Lodolo, Tyler Stephenson, and infielders Matt McClain and Elly De La Cruz, and the Reds may have just cracked the code for sustained success in the NL Central.
The Reds have already won 37 games in 2023, just 25 less than last season and in 90 games. And, the team’s made significant progress on the field. The Reds came into play on June 19 with a team wOBA of .321, good for middle of the pack in the Majors and a sharp improvement from the .299 wOBA, fifth-worst in the Majors, from last season.
Spencer Steer and Jonathan India both have had nice seasons, the latter of whom rebounded from a rough sophomore season a year earlier. Outfielder Jake Fraley, one of the better hitters in the second half of last season, posted a strong .805 OPS and continues to provide some much-needed big hits for the Reds.
On the pitching side of things, the Reds bullpen has been phenomenal. Exiled veterans Buck Farmer and Alex Young have both given the Reds much-needed support in the pen, as have Lucas Sims, Ian Gibaut, and closer Alexis Díaz.
Left-hander Andrew Abbott navigated command problems to throw 17 scoreless innings to begin his MLB career, while Hunter Greene has continued to blow away opposing hitters. Ben Lively and Brandon Williamson have provided mixed results for the Reds. Still, the Reds keep on winning.
Cincinnati owns the second-best record in baseball (16-6) since May 26 and capped off that 22-game stretch with a sweep of the defending World Series champion Astros. Now, it’s time to consider the Reds’ aspirations for the 2023 MLB Playoffs.
Some Thoughts on the Rest of the Way
The Reds’ run has been nothing short of impressive, that much is obvious. However, the sticking point for the Reds is their pitching staff.
This team can hit, as the Reds have a number of threats in the lineup that can do damage. And with C/DH Tyler Stephenson starting to heat up and Joey Votto set to return, the train on offense can keep going.
However, the Reds pitching staff is a question mark. The bullpen is steady, as David Bell has a number of strong options that can bridge the gap to Alexis Díaz. But with no Nick Lodolo until at least August, the Reds will need the back half of that rotation to come through — especially with Greene now on the IL. Thus far, though, the results have been mixed.
Cincinnati has a path to the playoffs. The Reds are just 0.5 games behind the Brewers for first place in the NL Central, a division that was expected to be dominated by the Cardinals. However, that’s not the case. Right now, it looks like a three-team race that could be narrowed to two over the next few weeks.
The Brewers still look like the favorites, mainly due to their strong overall pitching staff. But, the window is wide open for the Reds.
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