It’s been a busy November for the St. Louis Cardinals, as the 2022 NL Central champions have sought to rebuild their rotation after a rough 2023 campaign. St. Louis added two veterans earlier in the month, and the Cardinals can make it three with the reported signing of Sonny Gray on a multi-year deal. Here’s a closer look at Sonny Gray.
Related: What to Make of Tigers’ Signing of Kenta Maeda
A Look at Gray
The St. Louis Cardinals finished 29th in the league last year in both Whiff% rate and strikeouts as the team’s pitching staff fell flat in 2023. Thus, it’s not a shock that St. Louis would target Sonny Gray, who was in the top 20 of the league for most strikeouts (732) between 2019-23.
Gray, who ranked #8 on our list of the best pitchers on the free agent market, had himself a terrific 2023 campaign for a Twins team that won the AL Central. The 34-year-old struck out 183 and walked 55 over 184 innings in 2023, and also yielded just eight home runs.
Gray’s .39 H/9 rate was the best in the Majors among starters with at least 100 IP logged last season. And, it was significantly better than the starter who finished second: Marcus Stroman.
The new Cardinal is vastly different from the pitcher who struggled as a member of the Yankees in 2017-18. Gray is less reliant on the sinker and is more of a kitchen sink-type starter that doesn’t get predictable. The 34-year-old threw all of his six pitches — four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, curveball, cutter, and change — at least 5% of the time in 2023.
However, it’s the sweeper and curveball that’s propelled Gray back into the spotlight as a premier starter. Gray made heavy, increased usage of his sweeper slider over the last two seasons, a tight pitch that he commands extremely well and can either back-foot it or throw it away against righties.
This past season, Gray’s sweeper had a 41.3% Whiff% rate, a .097 opponents’ batting average with just four extra-base hits, and 108 strikeouts off it.
Couple those pitches with a four-seam fastball that doesn’t have plus stuff, but one that’s commanded well, as well as a sinker, and Gray can fool hitters with consistency.
Gray finished second in the 2023 AL Cy Young Award voting, behind winner Gerrit Cole. The veteran starter reportedly received a three-year, $75MM deal with St. Louis per The Athletic.
Analysis
Last week, we highlighted one glaring need that every National League team should address this winter. For the Cardinals, we noted that St. Louis still needed a high-end starter for the rotation, despite the signings of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
The Cardinals get that with Gray, a reliable arm that’s not only been one of the game’s best over the past five seasons but a crafty righty that can overwhelm opposing hitters with a number of big breaking balls.
With the signing of Gray, the Cardinals do have an older rotation. The projected rotation of Gray, Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz, and Miles Mikolas includes five pitchers who are age 32 or older.
However, several of those names could be considered short-term options while St. Louis waits for prospects Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse, and Tink Hence to arrive. After all, neither Gibson nor Lynn are locked in for an extensive period of time.
And as for Gray, the righty doesn’t rely on power stuff, but rather on smarts and command. That’s a good sign as Gray heads into his mid-30s.