Two-time All-Star Ryan Pressly is reportedly headed to the Cubs. The Astros reliever reportedly waived his no-trade clause, opening the door for him to go to Chicago. The Cubs would get their likely closer for 2025, a role Pressly did not have in Houston after he lost the role to Josh Hader.

A Look at Pressly

Last season was the first time in five seasons Ryan Pressly was not the Houston closer. Still, Pressly did well in a relief role, striking out 58 over 56.2 IP while posting a 3.49 ERA. However, his WHIP jumped to 1.34.

The right-hander switched to a setup role last year after Josh Hader was signed to a long-term deal. He was successful as a closer, as he notched 64 saves between 2023-24. However, Hader is younger and long been considered one of the best closers thanks to his stuff and deception.

Pressly had at one point one of the highest-rising fastballs while the Twins, in excess of 20” of IVB. That’s changed over the years, as Pressly doesn’t get as much carrying action on it now. But, it’s a pitch that still plays up (16.3” IVB in 2024) and can sit in the mid-90s, despite him losing some velocity over the years.

The new Cub has other offerings to work with, including a changeup, sinker, and two breaking balls (curve and slider), both of which are arguably his best offerings.

Pressly’s curveball is a hard pitch with well-above-average break down and away from right-handed bats, while his slider is a hard pitch that comes out from roughly the same tunnel (59° for SL in 2024, 57° for CU), making the two pitches somewhat complementary to one another.

The hard action on both of those pitches had led to gaudy whiff numbers over the years, including a 51.7% Whiff% on the slider two years ago. However, those numbers, like other ones in his profile, have gone down over the years. Last season, he sat at roughly a 30% Whiff% with both of those offerings.

The 36-year-old has seen his K% dip over the last three seasons, from 35.9% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2024. However, his GB% has jumped up from 46.2% in 2022 to 50.9% in 2024.

Pressly will make $14MM in 2025, thanks to an option in his previously-signed two-year extension several years ago. It vested when Pressly accumulated enough appearances — it required at least 50 each year between 2023-24 — for it to activate.

According to ESPN, the Astros will receive a low-level prospect who is not on Houston’s 40-man roster.

Analysis

It’s the second notable trade the Astros and Cubs have made with one another. The last one saw Chicago acquire All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker, for a package that included Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith.

This is a different trade, albeit one that comes under the same pretenses. Houston has been looking to trim payroll, one that Spotrac had listed at just under $212MM before the reported Pressly trade.

And given Pressly’s lofty salary for a reliever, it’s not a shock to see a small return for him. Especially, when taking into account the Astros’ depth in the bullpen. Josh Hader is still on the roster, as are Kaleb Ort & Tayler Scott.

Houston does need to clear money for the future. Yes, GM Dana Brown did state that the door has “re-opened” on a reunion for Alex Bregman, and money from this deal could conceivably be used. On the other hand, Framber Valdez has one year left before free agency and is a pitcher Houston should retain.

Despite Valdez’s struggles in 2023, the left-hander has one of the best sinkers in the game and doesn’t rely on velocity, good signs that he can age well.

Now, Pressly wasn’t under contract past 2025. But, moving him could give the Astros some savings to use in the future, especially since the Astros now move further away from the $241MM luxury tax threshold.

As for the Cubs, Chicago has been adding to their bullpen this winter. The Cubs acquired ex-Guardian Eli Morgan back in November, then added former Twin Caleb Thielbar in December. Pressly, however, slots in as the Cubs’ likely closer in 2025, pushing Porter Hodge to a setup role.

Hodge pitched well late last year as closer, notching six saves over the final month. This move, though, gives the Cubs a more established closer.