Evaluating Each NL Wild Card Contender Heading into September

With just one month before the end of the 2023 regular season, the National League Wild Card race is tight. Six teams are either in a Wild Card spot, or three or fewer games out of one. So, how does each of the six look heading into September? Let’s take a look.

Phillies

Record (as of 8/30): 74-58
Position in AL Wild Card: 1st (5.5 G ahead of Arizona)

Much like in 2022, the Phillies have been a juggernaut on offense. Despite no Rhys Hoskins and a below-average year from Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott and a resurgent Bryce Harper have helped catapult the Phillies — who entered play on August 30 with the sixth-best team OPS (.763) — to the first NL Wild Card position.

The Phillies have the arms and bats to go far in October, and Philadelphia’s in a good place heading into the final month.

Cubs

Record (as of 8/30): 70-62
Position in AL Wild Card: 2nd (1.5 G ahead of Arizona)

The Cubs’ playoff chances heading into July were not particularly high, but Chicago decided to hold on to Cody Bellinger and instead add after a strong month. Chicago continued to roll in August, as the Cubs won 17 of the team’s first 26 games and even have a chance of winning the NL Central.

Between Bellinger and the stellar year from Justin Steele, there are a lot of feel good stories on this Cubs team. If the Cubs — who entered play on the 30th fifth in the NL in OPS (.746) — can take care of business in September against the Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies, and Reds, Chicago may be playoff-bound for the first time since 2020.

Giants

Record (as of 8/30): 69-63
Position in AL Wild Card: 4th (0.5 G ahead of Arizona)

The Giants have been besieged by injuries in 2023, but several youngsters and a pitching staff that sits 10th in the Majors in ERA (3.95) have held on the NL playoff ace. San Francisco doesn’t have much in terms of star power, but the Giants do have some good bats and a deep bullpen that includes Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, and Ryan Walker.

With that bullpen and two good starters in Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, the Giants are the kind of team that can wreck havoc in October. But in order to get there, the Giants will have to navigate a final month that’s heavy on divisional games. San Francisco has two games remaining against Arizona, six games against the Padres, and seven each against the Dodgers and Rockies.

Diamondbacks

Record (as of 8/30): 69-64
Position in AL Wild Card: 3rd (0.5 G out of playoff spot)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been streaky in the second half. From July 14-August 11, the D-Backs won just five games and lost 20. Arizona proceeded to go on a 12-3 run afterwards, to get right back into the race.

The good news for the D-Backs is that Arizona has seven games against the Cubs and two more versus the Giants. If the Diamondbacks want to make the playoffs, destiny is in their own hands.

Reds

Record (as of 8/29): 68-66
Position in AL Wild Card: 5th (2.0 G out of playoff spot)

Things looked quite promising for the Reds a month ago, as Cincinnati entered the All-Star break in first place in the NL Central. However, the Reds have gone 18-25 since then. While the Reds have a strong offense, the Reds gave up 145 runs over the first 29 days of August and showed some weak points in the team’s pitching staff.

The Reds are still two games out a playoff spot, but will need the likes of Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and Hunter Greene to produce over the final months. Four games against the Cubs in early September, coupled with a softer schedule in the final month give the Reds a decent chance of sticking in the race.

Marlins

Record (as of 8/29): 66-66
Position in AL Wild Card: 6th (3.0 G out of playoff spot)

The Marlins were 53-39 after the first half of the 2023 campaign, but have won just 13 games since then. Miami’s slipped to a .500 record with 30 games to play, despite a strong pitching staff that includes Jesus Luzardo & a rejuvenated Sandy Alcantara, and a beefed-up lineup that includes newcomers Jake Burger and Josh Bell.

Deadline acquisition David Robertson has struggled since joining the Marlins, and a September schedule that includes matchups with the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and seven games with Milwaukee won’t do Miami any favors.

Note: In order to be eligible for this list, a team must either be in an NL Wild Card spot, or five games or fewer back of a playoff position.