On December 19, reports broke that the Pirates, Rays, and Astros were completing a three-way trade. It’s a big one, as the Astros will get Mike Burrows, the Rays will get two high-end prospects, while the Pirates get Brandonw Lowe and two others.

The Astros’ Return

• SP Mike Burrows (97 K, 31 BB, 3.94 ERA over 96 IP)

The 2025 campaign was a big one for Mike Burrows, a former 11th-round pick by the Pirates back in 2018. After grinding through the Minors as a strikeout pitcher, Burrows established himself as a back-end starter for the Pirates.

Burrows came on as an effective starter early, as he struck out 30 over 26.1 IP in May. He had some hiccups throughout the season but still finished with a sub-4.00 ERA. The 26-year-old also finished with an above-average 27% Whiff%.

Burrows, as noted in the heat map below, induced a lot of swings and misses both up and to the glove side.

With Burrows, it’s a five-pitch mix. He’ll primarily lean on his mid-90s four-seamer and mid-80s changeup, which differed in velocity off the fastball by about eight MPH. Taking that much off can lead to whiffs, and it did for Burrows. Opposing batters hit just .147 with a 43.1% Whiff% of the changeup.

Aside from those two pitches, Burrows will use a slider, curveball, and sinker, the latter of which is usually reserved for right-handed hitters.

Burrows has six years of team control left.

The Pirates’ Return

• 2B Brandon Lowe (.256/.307/.477, 31 HR over 553 PA)
• OF Jake Mangum (.296/.330/.368 over 428 PA (MLB))
• RP Mason Montgomery (63 K, 27 BB, 5.67 ERA over 46 IP)

The big piece involved in this deal, overall, is Brandon Lowe. Lowe, a two-time AL All-Star, hit 31 home runs and 50 total extra-base hits. The 31-year-old has been one of the power-hitting middle infielders of the decade, as Lowe had four 20+ home run seasons since the 2021 campaign.

That 2021 campaign was his high-water mark, as Lowe blasted a career-best 39 home runs for Tampa Bay.

A pull-heavy power hitter with above-average bat speed, Lowe has graded among the league’s best when it comes to total barrels. However, it does come at a price, as he’ll habitually swing and miss against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. That will often come with the territory when it comes to power hitters, who will regularly sell out on the fastball.

Lowe has generally graded as a below-average defender. This past season, Lowe — who’s not a burner when it comes to footspeed — posted a -13 Outs Above Average.

The big question with Lowe, though, is durability. The most games he’s ever played in a single season are 149 (2021), and he played fewer than 110 games every year between 2022 and 2024. Oblique tightness cost him an appearance in the 2025 All-Star Game. He also dealt with ankle/foot tendinitis.

Lowe is in the last year of his current contract.

As for the other pieces going to Pittsburgh, one is Mason Montgomery. Mongtomery, a 25-year-old reliever, is a true power pitcher. A high-90s fastball with riding action, plus a hard slider. Both were swing-and-miss pitches, as Montgomery had 30+% Whiff% rates on both offerings.

Given the pitch arsenal and handedness, it’s not a shock that Montgomery’s splits are uneven. Opposing left-handed hitters slashed .206/.313/.324 (.636 OPS) off him this past season. Right-handed hitters, meanwhile, slashed .321/.409/.505 (.914 OPS). Five of the six home runs he surrendered were off right-handed hitters.

The last part of this trade is Jake Mangum, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who made his MLB debut in 2025 after he was drafted and signed by the Mets in 2019. Mangum left Mississippi State as the SEC hit king but was never a power hitter in college — which remains true now.

Mangum is a slap hitter, one who makes a lot of ground-ball contact and habitually chases out of the zone. His 4.4% BB% was 10th-lowest in the Majors among hitters with 350+ plate appearances this past season.

However, Mangum is an elite runner who played all three outfield positions for the Rays this past season.

The Rays’ Return

• SP Anderson Brito (65 K, 28 BB, 3.28 ERA over 49.1 IP (A+))
• OF Jacob Melton (.157/.234/.186, one XBH over 78 PA (MLB))

Arguably, the prospect with the highest ceiling in the Astros’ farm system was Anderson Brito. Part of the reason is that while he hadn’t pitched much professionally, his stuff played so well in the lower Minors.

Brito signed out of Latin America for just $10K two years ago. He skated through three levels in 2024, then pitched exceptionally well for High-A Asheville in abbreviated action this past season. Brito missed time on the IL and made it up in the Arizona Fall League.

He excelled in Arizona, as Brito struck out 22 over 11 innings.

Brito is a four-pitch pitcher, working between a four-seamer with cut that averaged 98.1 MPH in the AFL, third-highest in the circuit. And given the number of strikeouts, he missed a lot of bats.

Aside from the hard fastball, Brito worked more with a mid-80s sweeper and curveball, as well as a changeup that sat in the low-90s. However, the pitch profile in the changeup isn’t there, just yet.

The other player involved in this deal is Jacob Melton, a 25-year-old who was also one of the Astros’ top prospects. Melton broke out in 2023, as he hit 23 home runs between High-A and Double-A that year. He made his MLB debut this past season.

Good runner and a short swing. However, he was very much in between this past year. Melton was whiffing on all types of pitches, which resulted in a 35.5% Whiff% this past year.

Analysis

Let’s break this down, one at a time.

For the Astros, Houston needed pitching. As I noted when the team signed Nate Pearson, the Astros won’t have Ronel Blanco or Hayden Wesneski available. Framber Valdez, meanwhile, is now a free agent.

Burrows won’t replace all of those pitchers. But, he is a controllable arm who can extend the Astros’ window now. However, it came at a price.

Losing Brito stings. Brito has #1/#2 upside as a starter. That’s how good he is. The problem, though, is that pitchers can lose their value on a dime. Pitchers can get hurt, deal with command problems, etc.

The Rays got two very interesting prospects in exchange for dumping off Lowe’s salary, plus two other players.

For the Pirates, it’s go time. Pittsburgh reportedly made an unsuccessful push for Kyle Schwarber, as the team sought to add power for a lineup that lagged in 2025. The Pirates have pitching depth, led by Paul Skenes. However, to win games, driving in runs is crucial.

Lowe, in PNC Park, could do very well.

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