The Red Sox made a splash on November 15, as Boston added veteran Sonny Gray in a trade with the Cardinals. Gray heads back to the AL East and joins a Red Sox rotation that had a hole entering the offseason. St. Louis, meanwhile, picked up two young pitchers, a return headlined by Richard Fitts.
The Cardinals’ Return
- SP Sonny Gray (4.28 ERA, 201 K over 180.2 IP)
Despite a 4.28 ERA that may look unsightly to some, it was another good year for Sonny Gray. Gray struck out 201 batters, the third time in the last seven years he hit the 200-strikeout plateau in a single season.
The 36-year-old Gray had one of the lowest four-seam fastball usage (22%) rates that you’ll find among pitchers who use that pitch with the highest frequency. Last season, he averaged 91.7 MPH off the four-seamer, a tick lower than we’ve seen in recent years. While Gray’s average velocity on that pitch has fluctuated, its average has never been that low in his MLB career.
However, for Gray, it’s all about changing looks and speeds on opposing hitters.
Gray used seven different pitches last season, with arguably his best pitch being a sweeper. That pitch netted him 111 total strikeouts last season, along with a 42.3% Whiff%. It’s an offering that just runs away from hitters, and mirrors the type of movement that Gray gets on his 11-5 curveball.
Both his curveball and sweeper were plus pitches as far as run value is concerned. However, Gray will also regularly use his sinker, a pitch that not only plays well off his rarely-used changeup and sinker but also worked as a surprise pitch in 2025.
What do I mean by that? On two-strike counts last season, Gray had the third-most called strikes off a sinker last season with 32. Only Bryce Elder (33) and Brady Singer (43) had more cumulative called third strikes off a sinker in 2025.
It’s a way of keeping hitters honest, especially when Gray used his sweeper 54.5% of the time in two-strike counts.
From a batted-ball perspective, Gray was yet again an above-average ground-ball pitcher. No, he’s not the 50+% GB% pitcher he was years ago, as he’s leaned less on the two-seamer and more on his cutting four-seamer and other offerings.
Gray was also a master at getting hitters to chase, as he ranked in the top 20% in that category. Great command, as well.
The Red Sox’s Return
- SP Richard Fitts (5.00 ERA, 40 K over 45 IP (MLB))
- SP Brandon Clarke (5.08 ERA, 43 K over 28.1 IP (FCL and A+))
Richard Fitts is the most notable name going back to the Cardinals, given that he has MLB experience.
The 25-year-old Fitts had several IL stints this season, one for a pectoral strain and another for arm neuritis. He only threw 45 innings for a Red Sox team that had problems at times filling in the back half of the rotation because of injuries.
Fitts, acquired in the Alex Verdugo trade two years ago, is primarily a four-pitch pitcher who can gas up to the mid-90s with his four-seamer. It has carrying life to keep it up late, and it plays well with the sweeper and curveball down and out of the zone. His primary secondary offering was a gyro slider.
Much like Gray, he can induce a lot of chases out of the zone. Last season, he did so 32.8% of the time in abbreviated action.
The other pitcher involved is Brandon Clarke, a former Virginia prepster with an injury history. The left-hander previously had Tommy John surgery and has only thrown 38 innings since going pro.
Clarke, though, has a very high ceiling. Crossfire action and deception with his delivery, and four pitches. A fastball that hit 97 MPH in Low-A this season, coupled with a hard, runaway slider in the high-80s. It’s the kind of pitch that can get hitters’ hips going too early with ease.
He’ll also use a low-80s curveball and changeup into the mix, as well.
Analysis
This is a more complicated deal than just the three players. Gray originally had a team option but one that Gray could have made a player option. His contract will be re-worked to make it a mutual option that comes with a $10MM buyout for 2027.
For the Red Sox, Gray joins a very good rotation, one that now includes himself, along with Brayan Bello and ace Garrett Crochet. Lucas Giolito, signed two winters ago, is now a free agent, making Gray the kind of pitcher who can slide into his spot.
Boston didn’t have to give up Connelly Early or Payton Tolle, which illustrates an important point: while giving up a controllable 25-year-old like Fitts isn’t easy, it becames more tolerable when getting a talent like Gray and having young talent in the pipeline.
The Cardinals didn’t do bad, there. Gray was an obvious trade candidate given he had one year left and in a rebuild. The Cardinals got a very good left-handed pitching prospect, coupled with a MLB talent in Fitts who can slot in almost immediately into the rotation plans.
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