What the Royals Got with Michael Wacha

The Royals have been one of the busier teams this offseason. Kansas City has added several new arms to their 2024 roster already, and now Mike Wacha can join that list. Michael Wacha is reportedly headed to the Royals on a new contract after what was a very strong 2023 campaign.

A Look at Wacha

31-year-old Michael Wacha had himself a strong 2022 with the Boston Red Sox, after two down campaigns in 2020 and 2021. Wacha turned that year into a four-year, $26MM deal with the Padres that came with a two-year club option.

It was ultimately declined by the Padres, largely due to payroll constraints. That’s because Wacha had yet another good year in 2023.

Wacha struck out 124 batters over 134.1 IP and owned a very strong 3.22 ERA (3.89 FIP) and a 1.17 WHIP. The right-hander tied Blake Snell for the team lead in wins (14).

Michael Wacha whiff map 2023 — Wacha isn’t a strikeout pitcher. But, he can wreak havoc on opposing hitters with his fastball/changeup combo.

When Wacha signed with the Padres last season, we noted how effective the righty’s changeup was with the Sox. Back in 2022, it had a Whiff% rate near 35% and was an ace in the hole against left-handers.

That remained the case in 2023, as he used it with great effectiveness with the Padres and threw it a career-high 34.5% of the time last year. It’s a pitch that can get hitters way out in front, given that it has good fade and downward movement, as well as the fact it differs in velocity with his fastball by about 11 MPH.

Aside from the changeup, Wacha still made regular use of his sinker, cutter, and curveball to go along with the four-seamer. He doesn’t have the same velocity on the fastball as he did back with the Cardinals, as his mean velocity of 92.0 is well below the 95.1 average he had in 2017.

Nonetheless, hitters batted just .188 off the fastball in 2023.

Part of that is because of the potency of his changeup, which Wacha threw both up and down of the zone. Another element at play, though, is the vertical break he induces on the pitch. The 31-year-old’s IVB average was 18.7” last season, above that sweet spot of 18”. What he doesn’t have in velocity, Wacha makes up with feel and movement.

The new Royal ranked #11 among our best pitchers available in free agency.

Wacha wasn’t the only player to sign with the Royals on December 15. Kansas City also netted outfielder Hunter Renfroe on a two-year deal, which includes a player option for 2025.

Analysis

As we mentioned when the Royals signed Seth Lugo earlier in December, Kansas City’s rotation did not produce in 2023. But since the start of the offseason, the Royals have gone to work to find both short and long-term solutions. Over the past six weeks, Kansas City added Lugo and Wacha in free agency, and Kyle Wright via trade.

Wright won’t be available next season. But, a quartet of Lugo, Wacha, Cole Ragans, and Brady Singer has the Royals in a much better place for 2024 and represents a change of direction for Kansas City.

Now, this doesn’t mean the Royals will automatically become contenders in 2024. However, their pitching staff is in a better place today and is poised to keep Kansas City in games.

But should things go south in 2024, Wacha’s two-year, $32MM deal — one that will include a player option for 2025 — can be moved.

If Kansas City’s offense, which does have power with Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino, can improve on their .700 OPS from a year earlier, the Royals should be able to net more wins next season.