What to Make of Royals' Extension of Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals scored in a big way in 2019 when Kansas City selected Bobby Witt Jr. with the second overall pick. Five years later, the Royals have locked him in for the long haul. Bobby Witt Jr. has reportedly agreed to a massive extension that could max out at 14 years and $377MM. It’s a high price but very few have been able to accomplish what Witt Jr. did over his first two campaigns.

A Look at Witt Jr.

Over the past two seasons, several youngsters in Kansas City, from lefty Cole Ragans to Vinnie Pasquantino, have established themselves as potential building blocks. And, former first-round pick Bobby Witt Jr. established himself as the face of the franchise.

The 23-year-old’s second season in the Majors was a smashing success. The second overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft set career-highs in home runs (30), stolen bases (49), and OPS (.814). Witt Jr. also became the first Royal to record a 30-30 campaign in franchise history.

Over the first two seasons of Witt Jr., the 23-year-old hit .265/.319/.495 with 50 home runs and 79 stolen bases. Since 1901, just three players in MLB history have hit at least 50 home runs and stolen at least 50 bases over their first two seasons: Witt Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Julio Rodriguez.

Witt Jr. is a rare breed in the Majors. A true five-tool player, Witt Jr. posted an exceptional +14 OAA and a Sprint Speed in the 100th percentile last year per Statcast.

But aside from the plus glove and speed, Witt Jr.’s shown great pitch selection and the ability to hit for power. At the same token, he also showed a penchant not to do too much with pitches on the outer half of the plate.

The one real knock on Witt Jr. is that he doesn’t walk much. However, he doesn’t strike out much, either.

Per ESPN, the extension for Bobby Witt Jr. comes in at 11 years and $288.8MM. It does come with player opt-outs after the seventh, eighth, ninth, and 10th seasons and a club option after year 11.

Should the Royals take the club option, it would add three years and an additional $89MM to the deal. Thus, the contract as a whole could be a 14-year, $377MM deal.

The contract does strike some parallels with the ones recently given to Francisco Lindor (10-year, $341MM) and Trea Turner (11-year, $300MM). The difference, here, though, is that this deal is set to cover all of Witt Jr.’s prime seasons and then some.

Analysis

In our recap of the Royals’ 2023 season, I speculated that an extension of Witt Jr. would not only make sense but any sort of long-term deal could have parallels to the 14-year, $340MM deal that Fernando Tatis Jr. signed in 2020.

Before Tatis Jr.’s breakout 2021 season that saw him belted a career-high 42 home runs for the Padres, the fellow second-generation star hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 home runs and 71 extra-base hits over 143 games (629 PA) between 2020-21.

Tatis Jr. from 2020-21: .956 OPS, 6.2% HR%, 11.3% XBH% over 629 PA, -10 OAA
Witt Jr. from 2022-23: .770 OPS, 3.7% HR%, 9.5% XBH% over 1,326 PA, +3 OAA

Witt Jr.’s percentage totals aren’t as gaudy as what Tatis Jr. did in his first two abbreviated seasons. But, the 23-year-old’s speed and power, coupled with his defensive value at short, make the Royal one of the game’s high-prized players.

But getting back to the extension, the $26,245,455 AAV is rich for the 23-year-old. And, it does blow away a comparable deal in what fellow 23-year-old Julio Rodriguez (12-year, $209MM) received.

That’s the price a team pays for waiting to lock up a player who excels. However, the extension does buy out all of Witt Jr.’s arbitration years and three additional seasons.