For the fourth straight season, the Astros won the AL West title. However, it wasn’t easy for the Astros to get there. Houston was at one point 10 games behind the Mariners at first but rode a strong rotation and offense to the postseason. Here’s our recap of the Astros’ 2024 campaign.
The Offense
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 740 | 11th |
| Home Runs | 190 | 10th |
| OPS | .741 | 8th |
| Whiff% | 23.6% | 7th |
| Hard Hit% | 39.0% | 15th |
The Pitching
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.81 | 9th |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.66 | 8th |
| Strikeouts | 1,479 | 3rd |
| Whiff% | 27.4% | 2nd |
| Chase% | 28.1% | 19th |
The Good
The Astros were yet again an elite offensive team, thanks to their “big boys.”
Much like past seasons, Yordan Alvarez was the team’s catalyst. Alvarez blasted 35 home runs, the fourth consecutive season he’s hit at least 30 or more in a single season. And, he had help around him.
Kyle Tucker had an underrated case to win the AL MVP over the first two months. Before Tucker went on the IL with a shin contusion, the three-time All-Star was tied with Jose Ramirez and Gunnar Henderson for the fifth-most extra-base hits (30), and tied with Henderson for second in home runs (19).
He ended 2024 with good numbers, despite missing three months. Tucker hit 23 home runs and posted a .993 OPS over 339 plate appearances.
Aside from those two, Alex Bregman hit 26 home runs after another slow start and earned his first Gold Glove. Jose Altuve hit 20 home runs, and Yainer Diaz (118 OPS+, 48 XBH over 148 GP) was also a reliable bat for the ‘Stros.
Unfortunately for the Astros, their offense dried up in the playoffs. Houston scored three runs in the AL Wild Card Round against the Tigers.
Moving on to the pitching staff, let’s just say Houston’s rotation was very, very good.
Houston needed a lot of help this season, as Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. missed all of the season, while Cristian Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will likely miss most of 2025. Luckily, the Astros got that help.
Ronel Blanco, a starter/reliever in 2023, threw 167.1 IP and led baseball in H/9 (6.1). Framber Valdez found his sinker again, as it had more sink and paced the lefty in 2024. Valdez posted a 2.91 ERA, thanks in large part to limiting barreled-up contact. His Barrel% (5.3%) and GB% (61.7%) both ranked as among the league’s best.
Then, there were the youngsters. As noted by us in October, Hunter Brown underwent an incredible transformation after increasing the usage of his two-seamer. Brown owned the league’s sixth-best ERA (2.51) from May 1 through the end, becoming the starter many had hoped he would two seasons ago.
Additionally, Houston received a jolt when Spencer Arrighetti rounded into form. Arrighetti, a top pitching prospect heading into 2024 thanks to good breaking stuff and a funky, hard-to-hit fastball, diced hitters up over the second half. The right-hander struck out 70 batters in the second half, 20th-most in the Majors. His 3.18 ERA in that span was pretty strong, as well.
Those four, coupled with midseason acquisition Yusei Kikuchi, formed a strong rotation that helped the Astros go 33-21 over the last two months of the season.
The Bad
Houston’s new front office — overhauled after their second title in 2022 — two years ago believed Jose Abreu would be an ideal fit. The Astros had a hole to fill at first and he was a highly-productive hitter during his run with the White Sox. A year and a half later, Houston cut bait with the former NL MVP.
Abreu hit .124/.167/.195 over 35 games before Houston opted to DFA the first basemen, ending his run that saw lows, highs during the second half of 2023, then more lows. While Abreu had — statistically — above-average bat speed, one thing that popped up on video of him was that he just couldn’t get going early enough on fastballs.
That bore out in the numbers, as he whiffed on fastball over 25% of the time and batted .158 off them.
Houston used a combination of Jon Singleton, Yainer Diaz, and Zach Dezenzo to play at first during the 2024 campaign.
The Astros also had another former MVP in the later stages of his career have major troubles: Justin Verlander.
Verlander, who became a free agent after 2024, threw only 90.1 IP thanks to neck and shoulder problems. When on the mound, Verlander gave up 55 earned runs and 15 home runs (5.48 ERA), numbers that caused him to be left off the Astros’ playoff roster.
Like with Abreu, one has to wonder if “Father Time” is starting to catch up on Verlander. His fastball, despite high average IVB (19.3”), averaged almost a full MPH down compared to 2023. He also missed bats over 1% more compared to 2023.
However, some of the underlying metrics, including the hard-hit rates, indicate some of his troubles were thanks to poor luck.
Early Projected Lineup for 2025
- C: Yainer Diaz/Victor Caratini
- 1B: Jon Singleton
- 2B: Jose Altuve
- 3B: Shay Whitcomb
- SS: Jeremy Pena
- OF: Yordan Alvarez/Mauricio Dubon (LF), Jake Meyers/Chas McCormick (CF), Kyle Tucker (RF)
- DH: Yordan Alvarez/Yainer Diaz
- SP: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia
- RP: Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Kaleb Ort, Shawn Dubin, Bryan King, Tayler Scott, Forrest Whitley
When the Astros signed Jose Altuve to a five-year extension in February 2024, it ensured that their franchise infielder would stick around. But what about Alex Bregman, now a free agent?
The previous Houston regime was generally been unwilling to hand out big-money deals to players who’ve either turned 30 or close to the number, like George Springer and Carlos Correa, and not considered “elite bats.”
Houston should — and emphasis on should — target a corner infield bat, regardless of whether the Astros are able to retain Bregman or not. But if the ‘Stros can’t, that need will get greater and greater. However, if the Astros plan on keeping Kyle Tucker, a 2025-26 free agent, around, Houston will need to budget accordingly.
The good news for the Astros, though, is their rotation options are under control for the immediate future.