For the first time, the Mets and Phillies will face off in the playoffs. It was impossible before the Wild Card era but now, we’ll get a chance to see two teams on the I-95 fight for a spot in the NLCS. Here’s our preview of the upcoming 2024 NLDS series between the Mets and Phillies.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1 (10/5/24): Kodai Senga (Mets) vs. Zack Wheeler (Phillies) – 4:08 PM ET
- Game 2 (10/6/24): Luis Severino (Mets) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) – 4:08 PM ET
- Game 3 (10/8/24): Aaron Nola (Phillies) vs. TBD – 5:08 PM ET
- Game 4 (10/9/24): TBD vs. TBD –5:08 PM ET
- Game 5 (10/11/24): TBD vs. TBD – 4:08 PM ET
Game 1 will air on FOX. Every other game is scheduled to air on FS1.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 768 | 784 |
| Home Runs | 207 | 198 |
| OPS | .734 | .750 |
| Whiff% | 25.1% | 25.8% |
| Hard Hit% | 41.3% | 40.2% |
The Mets may have taken the lead in Game 3 of their series with the Brewers with a home run from Pete Alonso. But, the Mets didn’t win their Wild Card series with the long ball.
New York slugged .276 in the first round, yet averaged more runs per game (5.0) than any other team that played in the Wild Card. Much of their success can be attributed to good fundamental hitting, whether it be taking pitches and working counts to keeping the hands in and going inside out to take balls the way. Jose Iglesias and Starling Marte did the latter to perfection.
New York (NL) will look to outhit the Phillies. Philadelphia ended 2024 fifth in runs scored (784), thanks largely to the top half of their lineup. Bryce Harper hit 30 home runs in what was a down year for the two-time NL MVP; his 289 total bases were his lowest in a full season (min. 130 GP) since 2018. Trea Turner hit 21 home runs despite missing 41 games, and Kyle Schwarber hit 38.
Between those three, 2024 NL All-Star Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies’ depth will be at the forefront of this series.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.91 | 3.81 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.03 | 3.94 |
| Strikeouts | 1,455 | 1,433 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .230 | .243 |
| Chase% | 28.5% | 30.8% |
The Mets will go with Kodai Senga in Game 1 of their series against the Phillies. It’s a win for the Mets, who get the man who entered 2024 as their ace. However, don’t expect him to give the Mets too much length, as his last outing in the Minors saw him throw just one inning before he exited. It also wouldn’t be a shock to see him simplify his arsenal and go with two or three pitches.
Senga did very well in his lone 2024 MLB start, as he struck out nine over 5.1 IP.
Aside from Senga, the Mets will see Luis Severino pitch Game 2, with Sean Manaea likely to follow in Game 3. Both Manaea and Severino pitched well in the NL Wild Card Round and exited their games with leads.
As for the Phillies, Philadelphia will split up Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, their two aces who followed each other back-to-back during the 2024 regular season. The Phillies will go with Cristopher Sanchez, the changeup aficionado who finished fourth in the league in total whiffs (191) off the pitch.
Who’s not on the schedule for the Phillies’ first three games is Ranger Suarez. Suarez was masterful in the first half, as he struck out 112 over 114 innings and owned a 2.76 ERA. During the second half, Suarez averaged more than a hit per inning (47 over 36.2 IP) and saw major spikes in his ERA (5.65) and WHIP (1.69).
Our Prediction
The Phillies are in a different position compared to 2022 and 2023. Rather than start the NLDS on the road, Philadelphia is now the hunted.
The Mets, meanwhile, come in red hot, which could work to their advantage. Both teams’ bullpens are roughly even, with New York having the slight edge in the closer’s role. And offensively, the Mets have been doing everything right. We’ll take the Mets to advance to the NLCS.
Make sure to check out our preview of the other Division Series, including the Tigers/Guardians.