Back in March, the Brewers and Mets opened up the 2024 campaign in Queens. In early October, one of these two teams will see their season end in Milwaukee. The Brewers and Mets will meet in the 2024 NL Wild Card Round, in what will be an interesting matchup between two very different squads. Here’s a closer look at the series.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Luis Severino (Mets) vs. Freddy Peralta (Brewers)
- Game 2: Sean Manaea (Mets) vs. TBD
- Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
Game 1 will air at 5:32 PM ET on October 1. Game 2 is scheduled for 7:38 ET on the 2nd. Game 3 is tentatively scheduled for 8:38 PM ET. Games 1 & 2 will air on ESPN, with Game 3 scheduled to be on ESPN2.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 768 | 777 |
| Home Runs | 207 | 177 |
| OPS | .734 | .729 |
| Whiff% | 25.1% | 24.7% |
| Hard Hit% | 41.3% | 38.6% |
Both the Brewers (6th) and Mets (7th) finished in the top ten in runs scored this season. However, how the two teams accomplished that couldn’t have been more different.
The Mets finished sixth this season in total home runs and had eight players reach double-digits in home runs. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor each eclipsed the 30-home run marker, and Lindor hit the biggest one on the final day of the 2024 regular season.
As for the Brewers, Milwaukee does things very differently. Yes, the Brewers have power hitters, including William Contreras and Willy Adames. Adames hit 32 and drove in 114 in his final season before free agency. Also, one can’t forget about Jackson Chourio, who belted 21 in his rookie campaign.
However, Milwaukee’s true strength lies within its plate discipline. Their 25.7% Chase% rate was second-best in the league, behind only the Yankees. Joey Ortiz and Rhys Hoskins, along with Adames and Contreras, had BB% rates north of 10% this season.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.91 | 4.09 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.03 | 3.11 |
| Strikeouts | 1,455 | 1,373 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .230 | .237 |
| Chase% | 28.5% | 27.4% |
The Mets were able to save Luis Severino for the NL Wild Card Round after their wild Game 1 doubleheader win against the Braves on September 30.
It’ll be interesting to see how Severino matches up against the Brewers, a right-handed hitting heavy team. Severino rebounded in 2024 largely in part due to his ability to leverage his two-seamer. He’s not a strikeout pitcher by any means anymore, as Severino will fill up the zone. His job will be to jam a Brewers team that doesn’t chase often.
Sean Manaea will get the ball in Game 2, while Jose Quintana and David Peterson on short rest are options for Game 3.
While the Mets’ starters had the better cumulative ERA this season, don’t sleep on the Brewers. While Milwaukee didn’t have Brandon Woodruff and traded their 2023 ace to Baltimore, Freddy Peralta was sensational. Peralta struck out 200 this season, his second straight year he reached the marker.
Aside from Peralta, midseason trade acquisition Aaron Civale, Frankie Montas, and Tobias Myers are among the options for Pat Murphy in Games 2 & 3. Myers was excellent against the Mets on September 28 when he threw four scoreless and struck out five.
And, it’s hard to forget Milwaukee’s bullpen, which was dominant yet again. Brewers relievers, led by Trevor Megill and Devin Williams, owned the second-best ERA (3.11), behind only Cleveland.
Our Prediction
This is a strange series and not because of how the Mets got here. New York (NL) and Milwaukee played each other during the last weekend of the regular season and got a good look at Sean Manaea on September 27. The Mets, meanwhile, didn’t see Freddy Peralta and went 1-5 against the Brewers in the regular season.
Having said that, none of the Brewers’ regular season success against the Mets may matter. The postseason is simply a different animal.
The Brewers likely have a slim advantage on the mound. But, the Mets have been hot for weeks and can flip the script on the Brewers. We’ll take the Mets to win this series.
Be sure to check out Wild Card previews for the Tigers/Astros and Royals/Orioles series.