The first full week of the 2025 MLB and fantasy baseball seasons has concluded — and needless to say, there’s a lot to digest. Several youngsters have raised their stock into must-own territory. However, there have been a few players who’ve taken a stock hit, including a pair of players from St. Louis. Here’s our riser and faller list for Week 1 of 2025.
Risers
- Kristian Campbell (2B)
- Andres Gimenez (2B)
- Jack Leiter (SP)
- Otto Lopez (INF)
- Lars Nootbaar (OF)
- Anthony Volpe (SS)
- Austin Wells (C)
So, how about those “Torpedo” bats? Look, you’ve probably heard a lot about these bats. However, these bats could have an interesting impact in fantasy — but also a considerable drawback.
Before anything, though, I want to take a look at three specific Yankees, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells, all users of the bat, and their bat speed numbers between 2024-25:
| Name | 2024 AVG Bat Speed | 2025 AVG Bat Speed | K% Change from 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 72.0 MPH | 73.2 MPH | 16.4% |
| Anthony Volpe | 69.5 MPH | 71.4 MPH | 4.7% |
| Austin Wells | 72.5 MPH | 74.5 MPH | -6.0% |
It’s only a week, so the sample size is relatively small. But consider this: because the bat feels lighter — Cody Bellinger said as much, saying it “felt good” with how the weight is dispersed — and how the barrel is situated, per Chisholm, an increase in bat speed and barrel rates was inevitable.
The thing is, if the bat feels lighter, it could also lead to an increase in strikeouts, particularly when being too early on the pitch. Because now, while players have a more potent weapon, it could lead to players going through the zone without making contact. And for the three players listed above, all three as of this writing have higher whiff rates compared to 2024.
While Volpe and Wells, both of whom have been home run hitters, are risers, keep expectations checked. Especially with Wells, who started the year as the Yanks’ leadoff hitter but has now settled into the #6 spot.
As for other risers, I’ve been a fan of Lars Nootbaar for years — and those who are regular readers of the site would know that. Nootbaar is an exceptionally disciplined hitter with pop and speed. However, injuries have limited him to playing less than 120 games in the last three seasons.
But over the first week, he’s been very good. Nootbaar batted .417 over his first six games with two home runs. He’s also tied for sixth in the Majors in runs scored (7), which is interesting given that Nootbaar’s been the Cards’ leadoff this season.
Getting to the rest of this list, Kristian Campbell — on our Week 1 target list — is here to stay now that he’s extended. And one can’t blame the Red Sox for getting that done so soon. Campbell batted .400 over the first week and while that’s not sustainable, the bat speed (73.9 MPH) is very good. Campbell could be a 20-home run hitter with a decent average this season.
Andres Gimenez is now the cleanup hitter for the Jays. Gimenez has been a wrecking ball thus far, with eight hits, eight runs scored (fifth-best in MLB), and three home runs. Don’t expect high home run totals from Gimenez, whose career-best in that category is 17. But, he could benefit greatly driving in Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Anthony Santander.
Lastly, I have to get to Jack Leiter. Leiter pitched beautifully over the first week, as the Rangers right-hander posted a 0.90 ERA and 10 strikeouts over his first 10 innings. He left for precautionary reasons on April 2 because of a blister problem. But if that turns into a minimal issue, Leiter’s approaching must-own territory.
There have been two key developments for Leiter. One is the new changeup, a kick change that’s been used more frequently of late. But aside from that, the other piece is a two-seamer. Leiter’s two-seamer doesn’t sink. It’s a running two-seamer that works in on right-handed hitters. However, it does give Leiter a different dimension to his game.
Last season, he was operating at over 50% with his four-seamer. Now, the usage between his four-seamer (28%) and two-seamer (20%) is roughly the same.
Fallers
- Triston Casas (1B)
- Willson Contreras (C, 1B)
- Reynaldo Lopez (SP)
- Clay Holmes (SP)
- Justin Steele (SP)
- Michael Toglia (1B, OF)
- Masyn Winn (SS)
Look, just because a player is on this section does not mean you should drop them. The only exception is Reynaldo Lopez, out indefinitely because of shoulder surgery.
However, there are some cause for concern with some of the names listed above.
Masyn Winn is mired in a deep slump. Winn is batting .077 off fastballs with a 40% Whiff% rate, concerning for a hitter who batted .295 off them last year. Michael Toglia, a popular late-round target thanks to his power and the Coors Field effect, struck out 12 times in his first 20 plate appearances.
Don’t expect Toglia’s strikeout habits to change, as this has been a recurring issue dating back to his college days.
Then, there’s Willson Contreras. No player in baseball (min. 20 PA) had a lower batting average than Contreras (.044), a dangerous sign for fantasy players. Contreras currently has a 30+% Whiff% against every type of pitch, except the two-seamer.
That’s concerning, given Contreras’ habit of missing on balls. He generally is a good fastball hitter (.301 last season) but that hasn’t been the case this year.
There are two starters on this list: Clay Holmes & Justin Steele.
I’ll start with Holmes, who owns a surprisingly good 2.82 ERA through two starts. I say that because Holmes has battled in each of his first two starts. Holmes conceded six walks and 11 hits over those outings and has yet to pitch five innings in a game. His WHIP currently sits at 1.82.
Holmes is a heavy ground ball pitcher, meaning he’ll be reliant on the Mets’ defense to get through games. To this point, the Mets’ defense has not been great whatsoever. The good news, though, is that the stuff has mostly been good.
As for Steele, he’s made three starts, all of which came outside Wrigley Field. Let’s give Steele some grace. But, he’s made a few mistakes, including this slider that fell right into Shea Langeliers‘ happy zone.
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