That didn’t take long. Just hours after the Dodgers won the 2024 World Series, the Braves and Angels made a swap. Atlanta acquired starter Griffin Canning from the Angels, in exchange for Jorge Soler. The Angels acquired a big bat to deepen their lineup, while the Braves picked up a starter who had a rough 2024 season.
The Angels’ Return
- OF Jorge Soler (.241/.338/.442, 21 HR and 66 XBH over 574 PA)
It was a whirldwind 2024 for Jorge Soler. Soler entered the free agent market after a strong 2023, one that saw him belt 36 home runs for the Marlins. However, Soler sat on the market until February 2024, when he signed with the Giants.
Soler posted fine numbers in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, as he hit .240/.330/.419 (.749 OPS, 115 OPS+) with 12 home runs and 36 extra-base hits with the Giants. The Braves re-acquired Soler in the summer. With Atlanta, the 32-year-old hit .243/.356/.493 (.849 OPS, 134 OPS+) with nine home runs and 20 extra-base hits over 49 games.
Soler’s power bat and ability to work counts made him Brian Snitker‘s option to replace Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of the Braves’ lineup. It worked, as the Braves were eighth in runs scored (260) from July 30 onward. The Braves were 22nd (444) in runs scored before the move.
Soler is among the game’s best in terms of generating bat speed (94th percentile per Statcast). He’ll often get out in front on breaking balls. But, he doesn’t have many problems getting to fastballs up and in the zone, despite a lengthy swing.
However, arguably the biggest flaw in Soler’s game is his fielding ability. The 32-year-old is a below-average runner and thus, has below-average range. The Giants used him strictly as a DH, masking that. But, Soler didn’t have that luxury in Atlanta thanks to Marcell Ozuna. Between left and right, Soler had a -7 Outs Above Average per Statcast.
Los Angeles (AL) will be the fourth team he’s played for since the start of 2023. Soler is under contract through the end of the 2026 season. He’s owed $16MM in 2025 and 2026.
The Braves’ Return
- SP Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 130 K over 171.2 IP)
The 2024 campaign wasn’t kind to Griffin Canning, by any metric. Canning, one of the Angels’ more successful draft picks of the last decade, posted a 5.19 ERA last season. It was the eighth-worst among MLB starters (min. 100 IP). The 28-year-old also finished in the bottom half of the league in Barrel% (30th, 8.6%) and Whiff% (42nd, 24.4%) percentile.
It was a significant step backwards for Canning, who tossed a career-high 127 innings in 2023 and struck out 139. His career was besieged by injuries and medical concerns — he dropped to the second round after teams were concerned about his health — since before he was drafted by the Angels in 2017. Since then, he’s dealt with elbow inflammation, calf, and groin problems.
He’s primarily a four-pitch pitcher — he sporadically used a sinker — between his four-seamer, slider, changeup, and curveball. He’ll stay on top of the curveball, which doesn’t have plus vertical drop. And, his changeup and slider have been effective secondary offerings in the past.
On the other hand, there were times the slider and fastball got too much plate, which caused him to get gashed. It led to Canning surrendering four or more earned runs in 14 of 32 outings in 2024.
Still, there are some positives from Canning’s 2024 season, particularly when it comes to pitch movement. Canning’s IVB on the fastball was at 16.2”, not among the league’s best but roughly around the average. Although, his 14.7% Whiff% rate on the four-seamer was almost half of what it was in 2023 (28.3%).
Then, there’s his changeup. Canning saw his best results from the changeup (.318 wOBA, best among his offerings). It’s a high-80s offering with good fading action when Canning has the feel for it.
Canning is eligible for arbitration this year for the final time.
Analysis
The Braves entered the offseason with a logjam in the outfield. Atlanta originally acquired Soler in the summer to beef up their offense amidst injuries, including a season-ender for Ronald Acuna Jr. Before the deal, the Braves had Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Soler, and Ramon Laureano (arbitration) on their roster. Plus, Atlanta also had Marcell Ozuna, who’s exclusively been the Braves’ DH.
Atlanta decided to move off Soler and his contract, guaranteed for two more years, to alleviate that jam. The move not only moves out money but also saves Atlanta the dilemma of A) having Soler on the books for 2025 and B) playing him in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup. As noted earlier, he’s not a good defender.
Now, what the Braves do with Canning is another question. Before the end of the 2024 season, we listed Canning as one of 15 players who could likely be non-tendered after the playoffs. The righty did not have a productive campaign, although it is possible the Braves — or whichever team takes on Canning in 2025 — could look at him as a potential reclamation project.
The issue with Canning might not be so much his stuff but rather how he can effectively attack hitters with his existing arsenal. Canning has about a league-average four-seamer, in terms of velo (92-95 MPH) and movement. An increased usage of his sinker — theoretically — could give Canning something he hasn’t had in the past: a weapon to work hitters low and in, and set up the changeup.
He did use one in spurts (1.0%) last season.
The Angels, meanwhile, add a big bat to a lineup that finished 28th in the league in runs scored (635) last year. Los Angeles (AL) had four players (Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Logan O’Hoppe, and Taylor Ward) with 20 or more home runs last season. But, the Angels’ lineup still missed Luis Rengifo and Mike Trout significantly, particularly their ability to get on base.
The Angels finished 27th in OBP (.301). Soler could help solve part of that problem.
Los Angeles (AL) has a young and up-and-coming lineup, one that could include Christian Moore as early as next season. The addition of Soler does make their lineup deeper and gives the Angels added insurance in the case of injuries.