The St. Louis Cardinals reportedly added former Dodger Dustin May on a one-year deal. May, who’s coming off a tough 2025 between Boston and Los Angeles, is still relatively young at 28 years of age. He’ll get a shot on a St. Louis team that will need bodies for the rotation come 2026.
A Look at May
The past three seasons have been bizarre for Dustin May, the once-former top prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
May, considered a key cog for the Dodgers’ future in 2019 and 2020, dealt with myriad injury problems over the years. including flexor tendon surgery that knocked him out in 2023. He also suffered what could have been a life-threatening throat injury while eating a salad, another setback over the last two years.
His 132.1 combined innings between Boston and Los Angeles were easily the most he ever threw in a Major League season. May’s previous high is 56, which came in the shortened 2020 campaign. The Red Sox acquired him in July for outfielders Zach Ehrhard and James Tibbs III.
With Boston, he didn’t perform as well, as May walked 13 over 28 innings. He also gave up five home runs in a stint that came to an end when he suffered right elbow neuritis in September. Before he came to the Red Sox, May posted a 4.85 ERA for Los Angeles.
May has changed over the years in several ways. One, his arm angle has constantly fluctuated, often rotating between a more traditional 3/4” arm angle and a low 3/4”. Two, May heavily leaned on his four-seamer and sinker during the early years of his career. And when looking at the velocity he was able to generate, why wouldn’t he use his fastballs with regularity?
May has never been a true swing-and-miss pitcher. The right-hander loved to use that hard two-seamer in 2020 and 2021, using it over 40% of the time in both of those years. But this past season, that total flipped a tick down to 34%, while he significantly increased the breaking ball usage.
The sinker, in particular, was a problem pitch for him last year. May conceded 11 home runs off it, as that pitch was getting barreled up more, as opposed to inducing ground balls.
Put all of that together, and it’s not a shock why May ranked among the worst out of the 126 starters to throw 100+ IP in wOBA (.342).
Per multiple reports, the Cardinals will sign Dustin May to a one-year deal.
Analysis
The Cardinals were going to have to have a different-looking rotation heading into 2026. Miles Mikolas is gone, while Sonny Gray was shipped out to the Red Sox in November. It’s a rebuild in St. Louis, so why not take a flier on May?
One of the likelier plot points for May next season will be whether he can regain the strength and velocity he had pre-2024. Again, for reference, May’s four-seamer and two-seamer sat at around the 97 MPH range on average in 2023. This past season, it was 95 MPH.
Granted, pitchers can live with diminished velocity. But having it does help.
Another important note is that May, if the Cardinals don’t have a great overall season, could be an asset come the summer. The Dodgers got a very good return for May last July, even though he had a down year with Los Angeles before the move.
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