Giants to Sign Matt Chapman: What to Make of Move

Heading into March, former AL All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner Matt Chapman remained on the market. Now, he’s off, as the Giants have reportedly signed Matt Chapman to a three-year deal that included opt-outs.

A Look at Chapman

The Blue Jays acquired Matt Chapman from the Athletics shortly after the end of the 2021-22 lockout, a move designed to give Toronto another strong power bat and one that could protect the team’s stars.

Despite a .229 average and .757 OPS in 2022, Chapman hit 27 home runs and posted a strong 11.0% BB% rate. And in the first month of 2023, very few hitters were as good as Chapman. The 30-year-old hit .372 with five home runs and 20 extra-base hits in April.

From there, things began to fall apart. Chapman hit just .205 (.276 BABIP) and a .659 OPS, with a roughly league average .156 ISO.

It’s fair to say that Chapman falls somewhere in the middle between his amazing April 2023 and the level he performed after the month. The 30-year-old is a pull-heavy hitter who doesn’t chase much but his performance has varied by pitch type.

Chapman hasn’t been a good breaking ball hitter in recent years. He has, however, hit changeups and splitters, well. The new Giant, to little surprise, given he’s a right-handed hitter, generally hits lefties well.

But when Chapman does make contact, he’ll light up the Statcast machine. Aside from 2021, Chapman finished in the 95th percentile or better in Hard Hit% in every season from 2020-23. That’s helped Chapman rank in the top 10 in both OPS (.756) and OPS+ (112) over the last two seasons among primary third basemen (min. 600 PA and 60% GP at 3B).

Defensively, Matt Chapman is a very solid defender. Chapman has a career +54 Outs Above Average and has four Gold Gloves to his name.

Per the New York Post and MLB.com, Matt Chapman will receive a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs after the first two seasons from the Giants.

We rated Chapman as the fourth-best hitter available in free agency.

Analysis

There are some interesting takeaways from the signing of Matt Chapman, aside from the fact that he’s reunited with ex-Athletics manager Bob Melvin.

One, Chapman received virtually the same structure of a deal as Cody Bellinger did from the Cubs. The 30-year-old received a multi-year deal with opt-outs, giving Chapman the ability to test the market almost immediately.

Second, the deal is indicative of where the market is at the moment. One would think that Chapman, who finished in the top 10 in OPS+ (112) from 2022-23 among third basemen and an exceptional defender, would get better than that deal. However, that’s not the case.

Chapman is a fine hitter. However, teams have been hesitant in recent months to hand out big deals unless it’s for an elite-level player with a near- pristine track record. That’s simply something Chapman didn’t have.

Chapman is another notable addition to a different-looking Giants offense. San Francisco added Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler earlier this winter, beefing up an offense that ranked among the league’s worst in 2023 despite strong years from Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Thairo Estrada.

Defensively, he’s a clear upgrade from J.D. Davis and should be able to provide some pop for a team that needs it.