On January 9, 2020, the Rays and Cardinals agreed upon a four-player deal — with two MLB Draft picks included — that greatly affected the AL East for years. Tampa acquired former All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena, in a deal that proved to be a steal to this day.

What the Rays Got

• OF Randy Arozarena (11.8 bWAR with Rays, 12.8 bWAR between 2020-24)
• UTL Jose Martinez (0.2 bWAR with Rays, -0.6 bWAR in 2020)
• 2020 CBA MLB Draft Pick (Alika Williams)

The Cardinals promoted Randy Arozarena for his MLB debut in 2019, a Cuban expatriate who defected to Mexico and signed with St. Louis in 2016. Arozarena hit well in brief time, with a .300 average and .891 OPS over 23 plate appearances. And as we documented when the trade went down, Arozarena had a lot of attractive traits: power, athleticism, and a pull-heavy approach.

Well, Arozarena proved to be an immediate hit in Tampa. The former Rays outfielder didn’t start 2020 with the big club but came up over the final few weeks and put up eye-popping numbers. He cracked seven home runs and a 1.022 OPS over 23 games, playing a key role with a strong Rays team.

Then, the playoffs of Randy came to be. Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the 2020 MLB Postseason, winning the ALCS MVP. Before his rookie status expired, Arozarena exploded into a star and became a key piece of the Rays’ future.

The former AL All-Star didn’t put up eye-popping numbers after that 2020 season. But, Arozarena remained a highly productive outfielder. He won the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year after a 20-20 season, the first of three straight 20-20 campaigns. The 29-year-old also fit in nicely with the Rays’ way of doing business, working counts and walks.

Between 2020-24, Arozarena finished 18th in bWAR (12.8) among outfielders (min. 50% GP in OF), ranking among the likes of George Springer, Steven Kwan, and Michael Harris II. While Arozarena has never been an elite power hitter, the sum of the parts of his game turned the now-29-year-old into a strong, all-around player.

However, the Rays opted to move Arozarena, who can enter free agency after 2026, in July 2024 to the Mariners. Tampa received a package of prospects that included Aiden Smith and Brody Hopkins, two very interesting prospects with high upside.

The other two pieces weren’t as impactful. The Rays also received utilityman Jose Martinez in the trade. Martinez had two strong seasons with St. Louis in 2018-19, with a .847 OPS and 31 home runs in that span. He wasn’t long for the Rays, though, as he was traded mid-season in 2020 to the Cubs.

The 2020 campaign was the last one for Martinez at the MLB level.

Tampa also received the 37th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. The Rays grabbed Arizona State infielder Alika Williams. Williams was a glove-first shortstop who made it to the Majors but hasn’t been a great hitter at the MLB level. The now-Pirate owns a career MLB OPS of .541.

What the Cardinals Got

• P Matthew Liberatore (-0.5 bWAR between 2022-24)
• C Edgardo Rodriguez (Never played in MLB)
• 2020 CBB MLB Draft Pick (Tink Hence)

This trade was a very curious one at the time, as the Cardinals received easily the best prospect based on public rankings. While the Rays received a first-round pick and Arozarena — considered a borderline top-ten prospect in St. Louis’ organization — the Cardinals got Liberatore, a former first-round pick.

Liberatore had a knack for striking out batters at the lower levels of the Minors. Yes, Liberatore had some command issues, with 31 walks over 78.1 IP at Low-A in 2019. However, he also struck out 76 and his stuff looked very good.

When Minor League play returned in 2021, Liberatore was shuttled to Triple-A. The numbers with Memphis (123 K over 124.2 IP weren’t terrible. However, when Liberatore made it to the Majors a year later, the lefty couldn’t effectively get outs as a starter.

Two years later, the Cardinals shifted Liberatore out of the rotation. In the 2024 season with St. Louis, Liberatore struck out 76 over 86 frames and walked 28 batters.

Arguably the most redeeming part of the trade, however, for the Cardinals was the fact St. Louis received an additional second-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. It was the 63rd pick, giving St. Louis three seconds. Sandwiched in at #63 — in between #54 (Masyn Winn) and #70 (Alec Burleson) — was Tink Hence.

Hence has blossomed into one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It’s taken a while for Hence, a raw, wiry talent, to grow into a budding star. While Hence has never thrown more than 100 innings in a single season, he struck out 109 batters over 79.2 IP last season in Double-A.

Verdict

It’s hard to give the Rays anything but an A grade in this deal. Tampa sold high on Liberatore and reaped major benefits from Arozarena, who helped deliver the franchise a second AL pennant in 2020. Then, Arozarena went on to win a Rookie of the Year award and went 20-20 three times.

As for the Cardinals, St. Louis has yet to receive contributions from the return comparable to what was given up.

What likely stings more about the Arozarena trade now is that the current Mariner outfielder wasn’t the only notable whiff that offseason. For those who remember, the Cardinals traded away Adolis Garcia to the Rangers for cash a month earlier. At the time, the Cardinals had outfield depth; Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, and Tommy Edman were still on the team, and Lars Nootbaar was creeping up.

The Cardinals traded away two big bats who went on to do big things outside of St. Louis. However, hindsight is always 20/20.

Still, it’s hard to give the Cardinals a failing grade on the deal. Sure, it’s not a given the Rays would have taken Hence, recently placed on the Cards’ 40-man roster, with pick #63. But, if Hence can live up to the hype, it saves the trade. For right now, it’s a C-.