We continue our look at some of the best breakout stories from the 2026 MLB season with Nationals pitcher Cade Cavalli.
Former first-round pick Cade Cavalli was healthy in 2026, and that was a major boon for both him and the Nationals. Once one of the best prospects in the system, Cavalli had a breakout season, as he struck out 200 batters over 169.2 IP. Along the way, he earned himself an extension and a future as one of the building blocks for the Nats.
Health
That is one thing that Cavalli did not have on his side for much of his early MLB career.
Cavalli missed all of 2023 and almost all of 2024 thanks to UCL reconstruction surgery, and it wasn’t until 2025 that the former first-rounder began to gain some traction at the big-league level. That year, he tossed 48.2 IP in 10 Major League starts.
This season, no time spent on the IL for Cavalli. The only time he did miss was due to a suspension served after a bench-clearing incident with Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras.
Keep the ball on the ground
Last year, Cavalli was among the 10 best pitchers in the International League in terms of inducing ground balls. That held for 2026, as Cavalli had one of the highest ground-ball rates during the first half, above 48%.
That’s not a shock when looking at his arsenal. Cavalli used the sinker anywhere from just under 10% to 20% in a given month. But what was interesting about what Cavalli did during the season was how the sweeper became a heavy part of his arsenal.
It wasn’t easy for hitters to square him up. Only 3% of the curveballs he used were registered barrels, while the sweeper (3.6%) and sinker (5%) had nearly as low a Barrel%.
Given those numbers, it’s not shocking to see that Cavalli finished 41st in HR/9 (.96) among the 140 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this season.
Swing-and-miss stuff
As you can see in the above image, Cavalli used that sweeper significantly more as the year went on. The usage went from under 10% to over 20% by year’s end. And that pitch was awfully helpful against right-handers, especially in the zone, which was an interesting note. Opposing right-handed batters went just 9-for-39 in at-bats that involved the sweeper at the end.
His Whiff%, on the pitch, as expected, looked as it should: lots of action away to the glove side.
There were a couple of interesting notes on how Cavalli’s sweeper was beating hitters. While Cavalli did use it early in the count, only three of his registered swings-and-misses came in the first pitch of a plate appearance. Instead, it was more of a putaway pitch.
Two, Cavalli didn’t get overly predictable when setting it up between the four-seamer and sinker, which made up roughly 40% of the pitches that Cavalli used before he induced a whiff. There were also a healthy number of times in which he doubled up on the sweeper, as well as incorporated the knuckle-curve.
Looking ahead
Cavalli will be a National for the long haul, as the club gave him a four-year extension, which included a club option, at the end of the season.
Finding good starting pitching has not been easy in recent years for the Nats. But with Cavalli, Connelly Early, plus a slew of promising young arms like Travis Sykora, Jarlin Susana, plus others like Jackson Kent and now-veteran DJ Herz, there’s a lot of reason for optimism.
Come 2027, though, Cavalli will be the incumbent ace.
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