The Nationals took another first baseman target off the market on December 22, as Nathaniel Lowe is headed back east via trade. Washington acquired the 29-year-old infielder in a one-for-one deal. In return, the Rangers picked Robert Garcia, a highly-effective reliever for Washington last season.

The Nationals’ Return

• 1B Nathaniel Lowe (.265/.361/.401, 16 HR and 33 XBH over 140 GP)

First baseman Nathaniel Lowe proved to be a superb pickup by the Rangers. Texas traded for Lowe in 2020 and hit over his four seasons with the team. The 29-year-old hit 16 or more home runs in all four seasons.

Lowe’s best season came in 2022 where he hit 56 extra-base hits en route to a AL Silver Slugger award. He hit three home runs during the 2023 MLB Postseason, helping the Rangers win their first World Series title.

While Lowe showcased home run power at times — 27 home runs in 2022 was his career-high — he’s more of a line-drive hitter. Yes, Lowe will get under balls and drive those with authority. However, Lowe has a simple, short swing and doesn’t too much at the dish. He’ll stay with fastballs up in the zone but also go inside-out on pitches out of the zone.

Additionally, the 29-year-old is adept at laying off pitches out of the zone. Lowe posted a 12.0+% BB% rate in three of his four seasons as a Ranger. And over his last three seasons, the new National is fourth among first basemen (min. 50% GP at 1B, 850 PA) in on-base percentage (.360).

LaMonte Wade Jr. (.361), Yandy Diaz (.383), and Freddie Freeman (.399) are the only first basemen with higher OBP among that period and criteria.

Lowe is under team control for two more seasons.

The Rangers’ Return

• RP Robert Garcia (4.22 ERA, 75 K over 59.2 IP)

The 4.22 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story on Robert Garcia. Garcia is a 28-year-old reliever drafted back in 2017 and was one of Washington’s more effective relievers last season.

Garcia struck out 75 over 59.2 IP and posted a strong 3.1% Barrel% (98th percentile per Statcast), 33.6% Chase% (94th percentile), and an above-average whiff rate (29.4%). He was able to get swinging strikes across the entire strike zone.

The new Ranger doesn’t have an intimidating fastball; it sits in the low-90s and doesn’t have impressive IVB (13.6”). What Garcia does have is that flat approach angle from a low arm slot that makes his pitch tough to pick up. Not to mention, his four-seamer has more-than-usual run.

Garcia will pair his four-seamer with a slider and changeup. His best pitch is arguably the changeup, which Garcia used exclusively against right-handed hitters. The changeup has above-average vertical drop, causing a lot of whiffs over it.

Left-handed hitters had just a .592 OPS against Garcia last season. Right-handed hitters (.624 OPS) didn’t do much better.

Analysis

Last month, we noted the Nationals needed a power-hitting corner infielder — and emphasis on power. Lowe (somewhat) fits the mold, as the 29-year-old Virginia native has power and fits a key need for Washington. During the 2024 campaign, Nationals first basemen finished 22nd in wRC+ (93) and wOBA (.301), and 24th in SLG (.376).

Overall, only one National hitter — CJ Abrams — had 20 or more home runs last season.

A left-handed bat with pop and ability to work counts gives the Nationals the ability to get creative with lineup construction. For example, CJ Abrams (LHH) back in the leadoff spot, with Dylan Crews (RHH) and Nathaniel Lowe (LHH) rounding off the top-three.

Texas, meanwhile, moves from Lowe, who will likely get more than $7.5MM in the arbitration process. The Rangers acquired Jake Burger from Miami earlier in the offseason, and Burger will likely be Texas’ new first baseman. He provides more power and home run-hitting ability than Lowe and Burger has two more years of control. Burger is also one year younger.

The Rangers also add Garcia, the second notable lefty the Rangers picked up in the last week. A few days earlier, Texas signed Hoby Milner, the ex-Brewer non-tendered in November but was a highly-valuable reliever in Milwaukee.

As stated here regularly, it’s important to have a diverse relief core, meaning pitchers with different arsenals and arm angles. Garcia offers Bruce Bochy a second reliable lefty who has a different setup than Milner. Rather than a true submarine pitcher with a -3° arm angle, Garcia has a fastball with more velocity and a higher arm slot.

And, Garcia has the weapons to deal with left and right-handed hitters, necessary in today’s environment.

The Rangers also have Walter Pennington, Jacob Latz, and starter/reliever Cody Bradford as other potential lefties for Texas’ bullpen.