The Orioles lost a big bat when Anthony Santander went to market after a 44-home run season for Baltimore. Tyler O’Neill, a corner outfielder who hit 31 home runs with the Red Sox in 2024, looks to be his replacement with the Orioles. Baltimore reportedly signed the 29-year-old to a three-year deal, so here’s a look at what the O’s get.
A Look at O’Neill
A year ago, the Red Sox acquired Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals in a change-of-scenary trade. O’Neill was one year away from the free agent market in 2023, and it offered the outfielder a fresh start after fricition with ex-manager Oli Marmol and health issues.
At the time, it was a trade that we considered a potential steal for the Red Sox. Turns it, the moved worked out very well for O’Neill.
O’Neill hit 31 home runs and 49 extra-base hits with the Red Sox over 113 games. He also set a career-high in total walks (53). The 29-year-old was limited thanks to a leg infection and right knee inflammation, continuing a trend of late for O’Neill. Injuries limited him to play fewer than 100 games in 2022 and 2023.
Nothing has really changed with O’Neill since the trade. The 29-year-old is among the game’s strong players, not surprising given his genetics. That’s helped O’Neill develop into a strong power hitter.
One of the interesting notes regarding O’Neill’s move to Boston was that he would get a chance to play at Fenway Park. He’s a pull-heavy hitter, making it interesting to see what O’Neill could do with a short porch and the “Green Monster.” However, his splits on the road (.883 OPS, 15 HR over 59 G) were better than at home (.809 OPS, 16 HR over 54 G).
His plus bat speed and pull-heavy tendencies do lead to swing-and-miss problems. His 33.6% K% was fourth-worst among players with 400+ plate appearances. Only Zack Gelof (34.4%), Nolan Gorman (37.6%), and Jose Siri (37.9%) had a worse K%.
O’Neill has been a plus runner over the years. However, the new Oriole has never been known to be a base-stealer. He stole four bases last season and 44 over his seven career Major League seasons.
Defensively, O’Neill has plus arm strength that makes him a fit in right field. He split time between left and right last season with Boston.
Per reports, the Orioles signed Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal worth $49.5MM.
Analysis
The Orioles lost Anthony Santander, one of the game’s best power hitters, to free agency this winter. There weren’t many outfielders as dangerous as Santander over the last three seasons, as hit 105 home runs ranked third-best in MLB, behind only Kyle Schwarber (131) and Aaron Judge (157).
O’Neill will likely serve as a cost-effective replacement for Santander. Now, one could argue that O’Neill is an upgrade in some ways, given he’s a better defender. But, Santander has been durable and can do damage from both sides of the plate,
As things stand right now, he’ll join an outfield that currently includes Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins, with Heston Kjerstad on the outside looking in. Mullins is a center fielder, while Cowser can play all three positions.
Kjerstad looked great at times in 2024 but struggled after coming back from a concussion in August. He hit .188/.278/.250 over 18 second-half games.
Another note on this deal is O’Neill’s pull-heavy tendencies. For further clarification, O’Neill pulled the ball to left 51.2% of the time in 2024, about 14% above the league average. That would be a concern in Baltimore given the “Great Wall of Baltimore.” However, it won’t be as much a problem heading into 2025.
The Orioles confirmed last month that the team will move the left field walls in, as much as 20 feet in some areas. It’s considered a move to make Camden Yards, a power hitter’s haven for all hitters before the walls were pushed back, more neutral.
Make sure to check out more of our free agency coverage, including the Giants’ recent signing of Willy Adames.