After a tough stint in New York, Freddy Peralta is headed to the Rays. The right-hander was traded to Tampa Bay on August 2 for three prospects, a package headlined by former second-round pick Emilien Pitre.

The Rays’ Return

• SP Freddy Peralta (4.99 ERA, 113 K over 113.2 IP)

When the Mets acquired Freddy Peralta in mid-January, the hope was that the right-hander and pending free agent would become the needed ace for the club. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.

Peralta’s tenure ended with one of the 15 highest ERA figures among starting pitchers with 80+ IP this season. Oddly enough, that list also included now-Cub David Peterson, traded by the Mets in June. Plus, Brandon Sproat, who was traded to the Brewers along with Jett Williams for Peralta.

It’s been a combination of issues for Peralta, who, when on his game, can be an overwhelming pitcher. A booming fastball that can sit in the mid-to-upper-90s, coupled with three secondary offerings, all of which have been above-average for much of his MLB career. A changeup, a curveball, and a slider.

However, it’s been a grind for the right-hander this season. While Kyle Harrison, who helped fill out the void in the Brewers’ rotation, revived his career with an arm angle raise, Peralta’s arm angle dropped. As has the Whiff% on several of his pitches, including his slider.

He also gets in trouble with the walks, which has prohibited Peralta from going deep in far too many contests. Just in the last seven outings for Peralta before the trade, five of them resulted in him going fewer than five frames.

The Mets’ Return

• MI Emilien Pitre (.308/.438/.447, five HR & 28 XBH over 88 GP (A+ & AA))
• OF Aidan Smith (.209/.281/.391, 10 HR & 20 XBH over 59 GP (FCL, A, A+))
• SP Gary Gill Hill (4.49 ERA, 87 K over 108.1 IP (A+ & AA))

Emilien Pitre is the kind of hitter who the analytically-friendly teams like the Rays & Mets covet.

A middle infielder from the University of Kentucky, Pitre didn’t hit for much pop in the SEC during his collegiate career. However, he did hit for 10 home runs in his junior season for the Wildcats after just one in his first two seasons. That showing, impressive given the pitcher-friendly environment in Lexington, helped earn him a second-round selection in 2024.

Realistically, though, Pitre is likely someone who’ll fall right in the middle. Mostly a second baseman, Pitre walked 70 times over 88 contests this season. High walk rate, high take rate hitter, and low swing-and-miss rates for the former second-rounder.

This is the second time that Smith has been traded in three years. Tampa Bay acquired him two years ago as part of the return received for Randy Arozarena. Toolsy player with speed and power. However, high swing-and-miss rates. Just last season in High-A, he struck out 143 times over 102 contests.

Gary Gill Hill is going home. The 21-year-old was a sixth-round pick by the Rays out of Westchester County in New York. Gill Hill is a heavy groundball pitcher, which results in a lot of contact, a lot of hits but not that many walks.

Little crossfire action from Gill Hill, who can operate in the mid-90s and also weaponize the secondary stuff.

Analysis

There were reports that the Mets were looking for a “top-100” MLB prospect for Freddy Peralta. But realistically, that was never going to happen.

For one, Peralta didn’t perform the way he was expected to once he joined the Mets. Two, the recent trades for Luis Castillo & Tarik Skubal reset the market. If the Tigers were only able to get one consensus top-100 for Skubal, and the Mariners received an MLB reliever plus a top-20 White Sox prospect for Castillo, that telegraphed the kind of return that teams were going to pay.

The Rays did very well in this trade. Tampa Bay didn’t have to part with any significant prospect capital. While all three are good prospects, none of the three project to be those true first-division regulars clubs would like to hold on to, especially in the event of getting a starting pitcher with significant experience but not having a great year.

Peralta has the chance to benefit from the trade, joining a team that’s made the most of pitchers with one or two top-tier pitches. Look, for example, at Nick Martinez. Martinez had a dominant changeup for years, a pitch that he’s been using hand-in-hand with a sinker that’s also seen higher usage.

And, with Shane McClanahan currently on the IL, more insurance in the event of additional pitcher injuries.

For the Mets, three lottery tickets with upside. Smith is a toolsy player with flaws. Pitre fits the bill of an analytically-friendly team thanks to his middle infielder versatility, high take rate, and propensity to draw walks. Gill is a very high groundball pitcher who can limit the home run ball.

However, nothing close to what the Mets gave up to get Peralta.

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