The Chiba Lotte Marines dropped a bomb across Major League Baseball on November 9. Star pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted for MLB teams this offseason. Which means, one club could add not only a potential ace but one who would be controllable for years to come. Here’s a look at Roki Sasaki, plus how this process will play out.
Report on Sasaki
Roki Sasaki made his NPB debut in 2021 and couldn’t have been more impressive. Sasaki, with Chiba Lotte, struck out 68 over 63.1 IP as a 19-year-old. He then struck out 173 over 129.1 IP in 2022. That performance helped him earn a spot on Japan’s 2023 WBC roster. Sasaki posted a 1.73 ERA with 135 strikeouts after he won gold with Japan in March 2023.
There, was, however, frictions between Sasaki and the Marines. Sasaki wanted to be posted before his 25th birthday. However, Chiba Lotte resisted. He pitched well in 2024 (129 K over 111 IP, 2.35 ERA). Now, he’ll get a shot at MLB hitters.
North American fans got a good look at Sasaki in Miami last March. Sasaki struck out three over four innings against Mexico in the semifinals. In that contest, Sasaki flashed an explosive, plus-plus fastball that hit 102 MPH. He’ll pair with a slider and splitter, the latter of which is his best secondary offering.
His splitter fits the “seam-shifted wake” model of the pitch. Sasaki’s splitter during the WBC had significantly different movement compared to other ones, as it cut more to the glove side compared to the arm side. This is thanks to grip manipulation.
There’s a lot of unknowns with Sasaki, despite his stature. Primarily, how his fastball will play at the MLB level and whether the size of MLB regulation balls will have an effect on his splitter. Because the splitter grip requires a pitcher to have the fingers and hand spread out on it, one question that’s dogged some is whether the larger size of the ball will make it harder to execute the split.
However, pitchers like Yu Darvish, Kodai Senga, and Shota Imanaga, all of whom use some form of a split/forkball grip, haven’t had issues with the MLB baseball.
The 23-year-old is considered a generational talent. In Chiba Lotte’s press release, Marines manager and former Major League Masato Yoshii stated that when he first saw Sasaki pitch, he elicited comparisons to Hideo Nomo. Nomo led the Majors in strikeouts twice in his career.
Simply put, Sasaki is likely the best prospect to come from Japan since Shohei Ohtani and slightly ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, thanks to his stuff and upside.
How Sasaki’s Posting Process Will Work
Sasaki’s posting process will work less like the ones for Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and more like the one for Ohtani.
Per Major League Baseball’s free agent rules, NPB pro players who are 25 years of age, without a contract, and have nine years of experience can sign a MLB deal and not be attached to arbitration, etc. Otherwise, those who are 25 years or older and have six years of experience can be posted by their team and still receive the same benefits. However, the MLB team that signs that player must pay the posting fee.
Since Sasaki is 23, he’ll only be eligible to receive a league-minimum deal with a signing bonus. And, he’ll be subject to international signing bonus restrictions. This means any team that agrees to sign him must have money in their pool available to give him a signing bonus.
Teams will have 45 days to come to an agreement with Sasaki after he’s posted. Assuming Sasaki is posted in December, he’ll be subject to the 2025 bonus period. Which, could mean that teams that already have money commited to other amateurs would either need to break those deals or trade for pool money.
The team that signs Sasaki will still have to pay Chiba Lotte the posting fee. However, Sasaki will be on the league minimum salary for three years before being eligible for arbitration. This assumes, of course, Sasaki will begin in the Majors immediately.
Per the posting rules, any team that signs a player to a MLB deal with less than a $25MM guaranteed value will be on the hook to pay the Marines a release fee equivalent to 20% of the signing bonus.
Because Sasaki will be on a league-minimum deal for his first three seasons, it would — in theory — open the door for more teams to compete for his services. However, it’s quite possible that only a select few will have a chance.
Which teams make the most sense for Sasaki?
If precedent is any indication, the big-market teams will be heavy favorites.
Chiefly, the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the reigning World Series champion and have a deep history with Japanese-born players. The Dodgers have two in Shohei Ohtani and Yosinobu Yamamoto. Plus, the addition of Sasaki would enable the Dodgers to easily incorporate him into a six-man rotation.
With Ohtani slated to pitch sometime in 2025, the Dodgers would likely do so in a six-man rotation. It would lessen his workload and be a similar setup to how his routine was with the Angels. Plus, it would make Sasaki’s transition to MLB pitching easier.
Additionally, major market teams like the Mets and Yankees should be significant threats. The Mets love the big-game hunt and almost landed Yamamoto last winter. The same can be said for the Yankees, as the Bronx Bombers can pair him with a deep rotation that includes Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Carlos Rodon.
There are other teams to watch.
The Padres are one of those teams. San Diego could make great use of a pitcher like Sasaki. The Padres have several big money deals on the books and would benefit greatly from someone like Sasaki. The Rangers, also fall under that category. Then, there are the Cubs, who landed Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga over the last three years.