Here we are yet again. The Guardians and Yankees will meet in October for the third time in five seasons, although this will be the first time during that span these two will meet in the ALCS. Cleveland and New York (AL) were the top two teams in the American League in the regular season. So, here’s a look at our 2024 ALCS preview of the Guardians/Yankees matchup.
Scheduled Starters & Start Times
- Game 1 (10/14/24): Alex Cobb (Guardians) vs. Carlos Rodon (Yankees) – 7:38 PM ET
- Game 2 (10/15/24): Tanner Bibee (Guardians) vs. Gerrit Cole (Yankees) – 7:38 PM ET
- Game 3 (10/17/24): Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) vs. TBD – 5:08 PM ET
- Game 4 (10/18/24): Luis Gil (Yankees) vs. TBD – 8:08 PM ET
- Game 5 (10/19/24): TBD vs. TBD – 8:08 PM ET
- Game 6 (10/21/24): TBD vs. TBD – 5:08 PM ET
- Game 7 (10/22/24): TBD vs. TBD – 7:38 PM ET
All games will air on TBS.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 708 | 815 |
| Home Runs | 185 | 237 |
| OPS | .703 | .761 |
| Whiff% | 23.0% | 23.7% |
| Hard Hit% | 33.8% | 42.4% |
How fortunes can change for one player in a playoff run. Outfielder Lane Thomas, acquired from the Nationals in the summer, hit .209/.267/.390 (.657 OPS) with Cleveland. He hit six home runs but his -0.2 bWAR was bested by Jose Tena (0.3), sent to Washington the other way. Yes, both players play different positions and the Guardians acquired Lane to beef up their outfield. But nonetheless, it was an inauspcious start to Thomas’ Cleveland career.
Then, the ALDS happened. Thomas hit two home runs and drove in nine in Cleveland’s ALDS triumph, highlighted by grand slam off Tarik Skubal to put the Guardians in the driver’s seat.
Thomas wasn’t the only Guardian to hit well against Detroit. Steven Kwan posted 11 hits, tied for second in the Majors this October, and Brayan Rocchio notched six of his own. Jose Ramirez (.188/.350/.438) didn’t have his best playoff run. But, the fact that Cleveland’s depth showed up in spades is a major plus heading into the ALCS.
The Yankees, meanwhile, give their potent offense another chance to beat up on Guardians’ pitching. New York (AL) scored 37 runs against Cleveland over six games in the regular season and their bats did enough to get by Kansas City in the ALDS.
As we noted in our Royals/Yankees ALDS preview, Giancarlo Stanton has been a steady postseason performer and Cleveland found that out the hard way two years ago. He continued his strong history in the playoffs against the Royals, as he tallied six hits — three extra-base hits, one of which a home run — over four games.
Juan Soto, the Yankees’ big pickup in the offseason, posted a .389 OBP in the ALDS.
However, Aaron Judge didn’t benefit from Soto’s protection in the ALDS. Judge was aggressive in the series against the Royals but struck out five times — he did walk five times, too — and hit .154/.389/.231.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.40 | 3.85 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 2.57 | 3.62 |
| Strikeouts | 1,410 | 1,457 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .230 | .233 |
| Chase% | 27.6% | 28.7% |
As expected, the Guardians’ bullpen got a workout against the Tigers. Cade Smith pitched in all five games and struck out 12 over 6.1 IP. Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin threw four innings, and Emmanuel Clase made up for allowing the game-winning home run for Detroit in Game 2 by shutting the door in Game 5.
Expect the Guardians’ starters to have a short leash in the ALCS. Alex Cobb threw three innings in one ALDS start, an outing where he gave up two runs in three innings. Neither Tanner Bibee nor Matthew Boyd hit five innings pitched in either of their two starts against the Tigers.
The Yankees will go with Carlos Rodon in Game 1, lining him up for two starts should this series go past four games. Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and hardthrowing rookie Luis Gil will follow the lefty.
Rodon struck out seven in Game 2 against the Royals and was hitting the high-90s early on. But, Rodon lost some of that steam and got hit around in the Yankees’ lone loss of the ALDS. Gerrit Cole, meanwhile, didn’t blow the Royals away. He struck out eight over 12 innings but was spotting well and did what he had to do. Cole posted a 3.00 ERA in the ALDS.
However, what might have been the best news coming out of the ALDS for the Yankees was their bullpen. Luke Weaver — five strikeouts over 4.2 scoreless — was excellent. But so was Clay Holmes, who threw five scoreless frames in the ALDS. Holmes was removed from the closer’s role late in the season but he was throwing well against the Royals, hitting the high-90s with his sinker.
Our Prediction
The Yankees won the last tilt in a wild five-game series but can Cleveland get back at the Bronx Bombers in 2024? Cleveland’s got the bullpen and arms to do it.
On the other hand, the Yankees’ offense did very well against the Guardians, something that matters but doesn’t matter at the same time.
It’ll be a tight series. However, we believe the Yankees are a more complete team right now and will win this series.
Make sure to check out our NLCS preview of the Mets/Dodgers series.