For much of 2024, the Minnesota Twins looked poised to return to October for the second-straight season. The Twins wound up suffering a late-season collapse that saw Minnesota lose over eight games of ground and ultimately, cost the team a playoff spot. Here’s our recap of the Twins’ 2024 season.
The Offense
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 742 | 10th |
| Home Runs | 183 | 14th |
| OPS | .726 | 11th |
| Whiff% | 25.7% | 18th |
| Hard Hit% | 38.3% | 20th |
The Pitching
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.36 | 22nd |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.12 | 19th |
| Strikeouts | 1,500 | 2nd |
| Whiff% | 26.6% | 6th |
| Chase% | 29.9% | 5th |
The Good
There are a lot of great stories to come out of Minnesota in 2024, despite the not-so-great ending. Namely, the re-emergence of oft-injured players, plus great results from unheralded sources.
We’ll start with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, the two pillars of the team. Buxton and Correa were the Twins’ highest-paid players in 2024 and both entered the season with something to prove after 2023. Buxton missed roughly half of 2023, while Correa’s plantar fasciitis hampered him almost all year in the field and the plate.
The two, when healthy, were fine.
Buxton posted a .859 OPS with 18 home runs, his best season since 2021. Correa, meanwhile, hit .310/.388/.517 with 14 home runs and 36 extra-base hits. He was a 2024 AL All-Star. Unfortunately for Correa, plantar fasciitis came up again for him and he was limited to just 86 games.
The Twins struggled with keeping their stars healthy in 2024. Not only did Correa have his foot troubles but Royce Lewis had multiple stints on the IL. Lewis only played 82 games, although he did bash 16 home runs when on the field.
It paved the way for other players to shine in Minneosta. Utillityman Willi Castro became an All-Star, in a year that saw him hit 12 home runs and 48 extra-base hits, and pick up 14 stolen bases. Carlos Santana, signed in the offseason, hit 23 home runs and led the team in that category.
On the mound, Bailey Ober hit career-highs in innings pitched (178.2) and strikeouts (191). Joe Ryan (147 K over 135 IP, 0.99 WHIP) was excellent for much of 2024. However, a Grade 2 teres major strain shut him down in the summer.
However, possibly the biggest story to come out of 2024 was Griffin Jax. Jax was the Twins’ temporary closer to start the season thanks to an injury to Jhoan Duran. While Jax didn’t stick in that role, he wound up becoming arguably the Twins’ most important reliever, routinely putting out fires in the late innings. Jax finished with a 1.94 FIP and a career-high 95 strikeouts.
The Bad
The Twins’ starting rotation was either terrific or below-average, depending on what metric one’s looking at. Twins starters finished with the third-best SIERA (3.75) and second-best strikeout rate (24.5%) in the league. Yet, there were concerning signs. Minnesota starters had the sixth-worst HR/9 rate (1.37) in the league and the team ERA, as a whole, wasn’t good.
Minnesota’s starting pitching down the stretch lacked depth. There’s no doubt about that. Joe Ryan was hurt and unavailable. Simeon Woods Richardson‘s fastball velocity was down almost two MPH in September. Minnesota leaned heavily on youngsters, like David Festa and Zebby Matthews, down the stretch with inconsistent results.
Matthews, called up in August, surrendered 28 earned runs and 11 home runs over his first 37.2 IP. Festa struck out 77 over 64.1 IP and looked incredibly sharp at times after his promotion. However, he struggled mightily as games went on. Eight of the nine home runs he surrendered game in the fourth inning onward.
Not to mention, the Twins’ bats went ice-cold in September. Minnesota hitters posted a .275 wOBA that month, third-worst in the league. And as a whole, the Twins scored 90 runs opposite 137 runs allowed over the last four weeks.
It created what one could argue was a perfect storm for the Twins — in the wrong sort of way. Minnesota entered play on September 1 with a 4.5 game lead (74-62) in the Wild Card. But after a myriad of poor bounces, late-inning collapses, and mental follies, Minnesota ended 2024 four games out, with an 82-80 record. For those doing the math at home, that’s an 8-18 record in the final month.
Which, allowed the Tigers to sneak in to the playoffs after a hot September.
Aside from the bottoming-out in September, there were other concerning development. Edouard Julien, who entered 2024 as the primary second baseman after Jorge Polanco was traded, hit just .199/.292/.323 with eight home runs in 94 games.
Then, there’s Alex Kirilloff, who hit .201/.270/.384 over 57 games and struggled to stay healthy. Thanks to nagging back problems, Kirilloff announced his retirement after the 2024 season.
Early Projected Lineup for 2025
- C: Ryan Jeffers
- 1B: Jose Miranda
- 2B: Willi Castro
- 3B: Royce Lewis
- SS: Carlos Correa
- OF: Trevor Larnach (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Matt Wallner (RF)
- SP: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson
- RP: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Ronny Henriquez, Justin Topa, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, Kody Funderburk, Louie Varland
The Twins’ rotation will be under the gun again in 2025. Minnesota has interesting young arms in Festa, Woods-Richardson, and Zebby Matthews who could all take the next step. But, all three have flaws. Festa doesn’t have the most repeatable stuff. Matthews needs to work on his secondary stuff. Woods-Richardson, on the other hand, isn’t a power arm and someone who significant velo in September as the season wore on.
There’s been some discussion around Griffin Jax moving back to the rotation. It would be the first time he started since 2021, when he went 3-5 with a 6.10 ERA, 54 strikeouts, and a .842 opponent’s OPS.
It would be an interesting move, as Jax stated in the past he’s gotten stronger since that 2024 season and does have four average to above-average pitches. Teams nowadays are looking for pitchers who can be the next Seth Lugo or Reynaldo Lopez; relievers with four to five pitches and can make the jump back to the rotation.
But at the same time, he’s been incredible out of the pen and there’s no guarantee a move back to the rotation will click.
Offensively, the Twins are mostly set. However, two plotlines to watch will be whether Edouard Julien can bounceback, and if Royce Lewis can stay healthy.