One of the two 2025 NL Wild Card matchups will see the Padres head to Chicago to face the Cubs. Both teams went all-in on 2025, and by the end of the three-game set, only one will move on to the NLDS and face the Brewers.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Nick Pivetta (Padres) vs. Matthew Boyd (Cubs)
- Game 2: Dylan Cease (Padres) vs. TBD
- Game 3: Yu Darvish (Padres) vs. TBD
All games are scheduled for 3:00 PM ET and air on ABC. But, that may change depending on whether other series only need two games to complete.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 702 | 793 |
| Home Runs | 152 | 223 |
| OPS | .711 | .751 |
| Whiff% | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Hard Hit% | 37.8% | 40.0% |
Based on the numbers, both teams make a lot of contact. That’s thanks, in part, to the fact that both have very good contact hitters (ahem, Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner).
The Cubs’ offense was one of the best in the Majors this season. Chicago finished the year fifth in the Majors in runs scored, and sixth in home runs. Six Cubs hitters had at least 22 home runs on the year.
Kyle Tucker is back after several weeks on the IL. Tucker came back for the final weekend after missing most of September with a calf injury. And while he did top off on a lot of balls across the second half, Tucker finished with 22 home runs and a .841 OPS.
Tucker’s presence made the whole lineup much better. Michael Busch hit a team-high 34 home runs, while Seiya Suzuki cracked 32. Pete Crow-Armstrong posted a 30-30 season in his sophomore season. However, PCA doesn’t walk a lot and was, statistically, one of the worst hitters over the last two months of 2025.
Crow-Amstrong’s .533 OPS was the lowest in the Majors, among hitters with 150+ plate appearances.
The Padres, meanwhile, walk into Chicago without Ramon Laureano. Laureano fractured a finger in their series last week against the Brewers.
Laureano’s missing presence may loom large, as the right-handed hitter hit .269 with nine home runs and 20 extra-base hits across 50 games. He posted a .867 OPS against lefties, notable since the Padres will face at least one left-handed starter in this series.
Nonetheless, the Padres have elite bats, headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Jackson Merrill had a hot final two months, as he accumulated 23 extra-base hits over 39 games between August and September.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.07 | 3.83 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.06 | 3.78 |
| Strikeouts | 1,425 | 1,265 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .225 | .239 |
| Chase% | 28.4% | 29.0% |
The Padres enter the Wild Card round after a 2025 campaign that saw San Diego post the best bullpen ERA (3.06) in the game, as well as having the lowest total batting average.
On paper, their strength in the bullpen matches the numbers. San Diego’s bullpen can give teams so many different looks, ranging from Mason Miller‘s triple-digit heater to Robert Suarez‘s hard sinker. While it’s unclear how the Padres will use Miller past 2025, one thing is certain: both he and the bullpen are built for October.
As for the starting rotation, this is where things get interesting.
The Padres will throw out Nick Pivetta, a heavy fly-ball pitcher who loves to work up with the fastball and down with the sweeper, in Game 1. Pivetta was arguably the team’s best starter in 2025. He struck out 190 over 181.2 IP, and posted a 2.87 ERA on the campaign.
After that, the Padres are scheduled to throw Dylan Cease, the former Cub farmhand, out for Game 2. Cease often falls behind in counts. However, he did lead the Majors in K/9 (11.5). If necessary in Game 3, the Padres will throw out Yu Darvish, the ex-Cub who ironically pitched in the last home Wrigley Field playoff home game before September 30.
As for the Cubs, Chicago placed Cade Horton on the IL with a rib fracture just before the end of the regular season. He’s unavailable for the NL Wild Card round.
Chicago has not announced who will start in this series beyond Game 1. Matthew Boyd, who posted a 1.59 ERA and struck out eight over 11 frames against the Padres, will get the ball in the opener.
Shota Imanaga would make sense in this series. However, Imanaga gave up 20 home runs over 76.2 innings across the second half. It was something that was expected in his game, given he likes to work up with the fastball. No pitcher gave up more home runs post-All-Star Break than Imanaga.
The Cubs’ bullpen, like the Padres’ one, is very good. Daniel Palencia, activated from the IL just before the end of the regular season, throws very hard and was the team’s closer for much of 2025. Chicago’s pen got better at the deadline with the additions of Taylor Rogers and Andrew Kittredge.
Our Prediction
This is a true toss-up series.
Chicago has the better overall lineup, while San Diego’s bullpen gives the Padres a significant edge if the team can walk out of the first five innings with a lead of any game.
It’s a tough call. But, we’ll go with the Padres.
Check out more of our MLB coverage, including a look at the series between the Tigers and Guardians.