During the 2025 NL Wild Card Round, the Padres & Cubs played two incredibly tight games in Wrigley Field. Both contests went to the Cubs, who advanced to play the Brewers in the NLDS. Fast forward one year later, and the two teams will face each other again in the 2026 NL Wild Card Round to decide who will face Milwaukee. Only this time, the series is in San Diego.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Matthew Boyd (Cubs) vs. Michael King (Padres)
- Game 2: TBD vs. TBD
- Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
All games are scheduled to start at 9 PM CT/7 PM PT on NBCSN and Peacock. However, the start time could change for Game 3, depending on how the other series play out.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 850 | 722 |
| Home Runs | 220 | 183 |
| OPS | .767 | .717 |
| Whiff% | 23.2% | 25.3% |
| Hard Hit% | 38.5% | 40.4% |
The Cubs led the Majors in runs scored and OPS…and that’s not a shock.
Pete Crow-Armstrong led the Majors in home runs, and his 40-40 season helped carry the Cubs’ offense more ways than one. By the way, since the start of August, the likely NL MVP hit 21 home runs and 33 extra-base hits, both of which led the Majors.
Who was behind PCA in extra-base hits? That would be Alex Bregman. who slashed .304/.389/.658 with 17 home runs and 30 extra-base hits. Two of those home runs came on September 27 in Tropicana Field, a very positive sign after he suffered facial fractures in Cincinnati one week earlier.
And it’s not just those two Padres pitchers will have to worry about. Seiya Suzuki belted 22 extra-base hits, eight of which were home runs, over the final two months. Dansby Swanson is back and healthy, and then there’s the likes of Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch who can do damage in their own ways.
The bottom line is this: the Cubs are here for a reason.
San Diego, meanwhile, also saw some of their players have a torrid second half. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t hit a home run until late May, and made up for it and then some over the final four months. Just from August 1 onward, Tatis Jr. had the third-most extra-base hits (28) in the game, 17 home runs, 12 walks, and a K% below 16%.
Jackson Merrill wasn’t far behind with 24 extra-base hits since August 1. Ty France had a fantastic 2026 season, while Manny Machado can still barrel up baseballs. Compared to where the Padres’ offense was at the start of the year, this club is peaking at the right time.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.27 | 4.42 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.90 | 3.53 |
| Strikeouts | 1260 | 1315 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .243 | .242 |
| Chase% | 30.9% | 30.2% |
This will be the third time that Matthew Boyd will face the Padres this season. His previous two outings came during the Cubs’ two regular-season series, with some mixed results. Boyd allowed eight total runs over nine innings, although he pitched fine in his June start, which was his second outing after he came off the IL.
Boyd will look to lead a Cubs pitching staff that is in a tight spot. More specifically, with the bullpen. The likes of Jacob Webb, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Caleb Thielbar had their ups-and-downs. And oddly enough, the two most productive pitchers from a pure peripheral standpoint down the stretch were Aaron Civale & David Peterson.
Both Civale and Peterson, once near-outcasts on their old teams, fit in nicely with their new ones.
As for the Padres, we noted earlier in the month that this bullpen is nothing to be trifled with. Mason Miller is the obvious behemoth. However, the Padres have so many good relievers, between Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Bradgley Rodriguez, who can give a bunch of different looks to opposing teams. It’s more than just Miller.
However, the Padres don’t have much in the way of certainty aside from Michael King and Nick Pivetta in that rotation. Robbie Ray had an ERA over 5.00 since the trade from San Francisco, and more concerning, almost as many walks (27) as strikeouts (33).
Casey Mize, who sported an ERA over 7.00 since he moved to the Padres, is on the IL.
Our Prediction
This feels like a Padres series victory.
Even though the Cubs have the offense, San Diego’s combined group might be just enough to get by Chicago in 2026.
Check out more of our MLB coverage, including a look at the Red Sox-Yankees series.