Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic & Marco Gonzales from Mariners: What to Make of Trade

The first major move of the 2023 Winter Meetings went down late on December 3. Multiple reports broke that the Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales in a trade from the Mariners, in exchange for reliever Jackson Kowar and prospect Cole Phillips. Here’s a closer look at the move.

The Braves’ Return

OF Jarred Kelenic (.253/.327/.419, 11 HR and 38 XBH over 416 PA)
SP Marco Gonzales (5.22 ERA, 34 K over 50 IP)
1B Evan White (.143/.333/.143, 0 XBH over 9 PA (AAA))

It’s rather ironic that Jarred Kelenic was traded on December 3. On that date five years ago, Kelenic was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano to the Mets.

An outfielder with power and speed, Kelenic struggled mightily over his first two seasons in the league. However, a more upright stance at the plate helped unlock a new level for Kelenic, as he posted a career-high .746 OPS this past season.

Much of those changes were a result of his issues with chasing and missing offspeed stuff out of the zone. This past season, Kelenic swung and missed 45 off speed out of the zone (.55 whiff per PA), about the same (.55 whiff per PA) as in 2022. However, he saw more offspeed pitches this past season and it was over a larger sample size.

Another somewhat related point is that he also proved to be able to handle the heat much better in 2023. Kelenic hit .293 (33.3% Hard Hit/PA) off four-seam fastballs in 2023, a significant improvement from the .161 AVG and 26.9% Hard Hit/PA against the same pitch in 2022.

Jarred Kelenic Fastball Hard Hit rate map 2023 — Kelenic’s long had the power to be an impact player in the Majors. His 1.7% Weak% and above-average metrics proved that he could put it to use.

A toolsy outfielder with above-average power, speed, and arm strength, the Braves’ trade for Jarred Kelenic adds him to a strong Braves outfield that also includes Michael Harris II and reigning NL MVP winner Ronald Acuna Jr.

Gonzales has never been a strikeout pitcher, as he’s relied on command, deception, and movement to get through orders. His ability to give hitters different looks with a good changeup, high-80s fastball, curve, and cutter has allowed him to induce weak contact and get hitters to chase.

The Braves were looking for starting pitcher help. Provided that Gonzales stays healthy, it’s not hard to envision the 31-year-old being a back-end starter for the Braves alongside Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton.

As for Evan White, the 27-year-old missed virtually all of 2023 thanks to an adductor strain and a left hip procedure.

White was famously given a six-year, $24MM extension in 2020 before he made his MLB debut, but he hit just .165/.235/.308 with 10 home runs and 20 extra-base hits over 84 career Major League games. The former Kentucky standout hasn’t played in the Majors since 2021.

The Mariners’ Return

RP Jackson Kowar (6.43 ERA, 29 K over 28 IP)
SP Cole Phillips (Drafted in 2nd round in 2022)

This is the second time that Jackson Kowar has been traded this offseason. In November, the Braves acquired Kowar in the trade that sent Kyle Wright to Kansas City.

When he profiled Kowar last month, we highlighted the fact that Kowar managed to get whiffs thanks to his fastball/changeup/slider combo, despite a 6.43 ERA.

The 2018 first-round pick is best suited for a relief role despite extensive college and Minor League starting experience, and Seattle’s had luck with projectable relievers in recent years.

The key piece in this return, though, is Cole Phillips. Phillips was a second-round pick in July 2022 and ranked #7 in the Braves farm system according to MLB.com.

Phillips underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2022 MLB Draft and has yet to throw a professional pitch. However, there’s a lot of upside here thanks to a loose, deceptive delivery and power stuff. Scouting reports indicated that Phillips possesses a plus fastball that can touch the triple digits, along with a breaking ball and changeup.

Analysis

From the Mariners’ perspective, this deal can be viewed as a salary dump. Seattle clears Gonzales’ $12MM base salary ($7.5MM AAV), plus White’s $7MM ($4MM AAAV) owed in 2024. The final total, however, will depend on whether Seattle eats money in the trade.

It’s the second time in a month that Seattle moved out a hefty salary, as the Mariners traded away former All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez and his $11MM base salary.

As of now, Seattle is still poised to be competitive in the AL West thanks to a strong rotation and star outfielder Julio Rodriguez. However, Seattle’s offense has lost some punch since the end of 2023.

On the other side of the trade, the Braves grab a young, projectible bat in Jarred Kelenic who is still a year away from arbitration eligibility. With Eddie Rosario no longer in Atlanta, the Braves have quickly found a long-term replacement in left field.