One of the best sluggers available, Christian Walker, is reportedly headed to the Astros. Houston will reportedly bring in the 33-year-old on a three-year deal. It marks the end of Walker’s tenure as a Diamondback, one that saw him rise from waiver pickup to one of the best first basemen in the league.
A Look at Walker
Christian Walker proved to be one of the most successful waiver claims over the last decade. A former fourth-round pick by the O’s in 2012, Walker bounced around the waiver wire in 2017, from Atlanta to the Reds, and eventually, with the Diamondbacks.
Walker eventually stuck as the Diamondbacks’ regular first baseman in 2019, hitting 29 home runs and a .824 OPS. The 33-year-old hit a career-high 36 two years and would have likely hit 30+ home runs had he not have missed a month with a left oblique strain.
Walker’s 95 home runs over the last three seasons were third-most among players at the position. Only Matt Olson (117) and Pete Alonso (120) had more over that period.
The new Astro could be considered an ideal fit for Houston, given his batted-ball profile. Walker is a plus power hitter with terrific bat-to-ball skills and plus bat speed. That combination led to Barrel% above 10% in each of the last three seasons and a pull-heavy spray chart.
Walker holds his own in terms of staying disciplined and working counts. The 33-year-old posted a 10+% BB% in each of the last two seasons.
Defensively, Walker’s become one of the best fielders at the position over the last five years. The 33-year-old won the NL Gold Glove at first each of the last three seasons. His +39 Outs Above Average at the position (per Statcast) was first in the league over that span.
Per reports, Christian Walker will sign a three-year, $60MM deal with the Astros.
Analysis
Two winters ago, the Astros signed former AL MVP Jose Abreu with the hopes he would fill their hole at first base after the departure of Yuli Gurriel. As documented previously, that move didn’t work out, as Abreu was DFA’d by Houston earlier this year.
On paper, this move is safer. Walker is 33, younger than Abreu (35) when he signed.
The move to get Walker not only takes care of first base for the Astros but also virtually replaces Kyle Tucker, who was traded to Chicago, in their lineup as the #2 power threat aside Yordan Alvarez. While Tucker likely will remain a top players for years to come, signing Walker gives Houston future flexibility.
Walker’s contract will come in at $20MM of luxury tax AAV per year. Tucker, being the better all-around player, would have cost Houston significantly more both in the AAV category and required a longer committment.
Plus, having a pull-orientated right-handed hitter in Houston — with the short left-field porch — isn’t bad whatsoever.
Now, with Christian Walker at first and Isaac Paredes at third, Houston’s infield is essentially set for 2025. It likely means Alex Bregman won’t return, and also means consequences across the Majors.
The Yankees were one team reportedly in on Walker. Reports suggested Walker was more appealing to them than Alonso, likely because of Alonso’s demands. However, New York (AL) reportedly didn’t want to lose a draft pick for signing Walker.
Since the Yankees signed pitcher Max Fried, qualified by the Braves, to his big-money deal, New York has to give up their second and fifth-highest 2025 MLB Draft picks as a CBT payor. Had the Yankees also signed Walker, also qualified, it would have cost the team their third and sixth-highest picks.
Thus, the Yankees are reportedly in the mix for Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, both of whom are not bound to any qualifying offer.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, could move Pavin Smith to first base full-time. Or, look at one of the alternatives in free agency.