A month after he was non-tendered by the Angels, the Red Sox signed injured left-hander Patrick Sandoval to a two-year deal on December 20. The move gives Sandoval a soft landing spot and a team to rehab with next season. The Red Sox, meanwhile will bet on a lefty who pitched very well in 2022 before uneven years in 2023 and 2024.
A Look at Sandoval
Two seasons ago, Patrick Sandoval put up very strong numbers, as he struck out 151 over 148.2 IP. It came after better pitch mixing — which we documented two years ago — and in the second half of 2022, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
His numbers, at least on paper, have tailed off since. Sandoval posted a 4.11 ERA in 2023 and only struck out 128 over 144.2 IP. His strikeout numbers (81 over 79.2 IP) but a 5.08 ERA in 2024 didn’t look good on his record.
Sandoval underwent Tommy John surgery in June, which ended his 2024 campaign on a sour note.
It’s hard, however, to pin the bad ERA solely on him. Sandoval does have his weaknesses, namely walks. The 28-year-old limits well-hit balls (5.8% Barrel%) with regularity, thanks to a running two-seamer and a changeup that profiles as his best pitch.
Sandoval’s changeup netted him 295 whiffs between 2022-23, sixth-most in baseball over that period. The only pitchers with more were ex-teammate Tyler Anderson (332), Logan Webb (327), Lucas Giolito (307), Sandy Alcantara (305), and Trevor Richards (297).
His changeup, when clicking, isn’t a pitch with above-average movement; its drop is below-average and the run is roughly average. However, the speed differential — about 11 MPH — between it and his four-seamer/sinker make it a weapon, getting hitters out in front with regularlity.
The other component to why Sandoval’s had success in the past is he does have a wide range of weapons. The left-hander also has a gyro slider, sweeper, and mid-70s curveball to change the pace on hitters.
The 28-year-old’s chase numbers have gone down in recent years: from an above-average 31.8% in 2022 to a below-average 27.1% in 2024. Sandoval traditionally posts below-average BB% numbers, as the lefty’s game is to get hitters to chase out of the zone. Sometimes, that strategy works, especially if tunneled correctly.
However, it can also have its downside.
Per ESPN, the Red Sox signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year, $18.25MM deal.
Analysis
The two-year deal locks Sandoval in through 2026, a moot point given he has two years left before he reaches six years of service time. However, the move gives Sandoval financial security and a chance to rehab with the Sox in 2025. Given he had Tommy John in June, it’s an unknown whether he’ll be available in the second half.
Sandoval will follow a similar plan as Liam Hendriks, who signed a two-year deal with Boston recovering from surgery before the 2024 campaign. And, he’ll likely be a key part of Boston’s 2026 rotation. As of now, Boston has four starters — Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello — locked in for that season.
Lucas Giolito signed a two-year deal last winter and can become a free agent after 2025.