Yankees Sign Max Fried in Blockbuster: What to Make of Move

The Yankees make their first big move of the offseason, two months removed from an American League pennant and days removed from losing Juan Soto. Max Fried, one of the best starters on the market, is now a member of the Yankees. New York (AL) reportedly signed the three-time Gold Glove winner and two-time All-Star to an eight-year deal that would set a record when finalized.

A Look at Fried

Looking at Max Fried‘s numbers, it’s clear why the Yankees gave him big money.

Over the last three seasons (min. 250 IP), Fried is fourth-best in HR/9 (0.7) and top five in ERA (2.80) and ERA+ (149). The only pitchers with better ERA numbers in that span were Michael King, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, and former teammate Reynaldo Lopez.

Last season, Fried struck out 166 over 174.1 IP and posted a 3.25 ERA.

So, what makes Fried a dominant starter? Well, one could start with consistency of mechanics. Fried’s four-seamer, slider, and sinker all comes out at almost the same chute, all within a 6° arm angle difference of one another.

Fried will work with seven different pitches and will use all of them frequently. However, arguably his best pitch is a slow curveball that sits in the mid-70s, about 20 MPH in difference from his fastball. And, it has elite movement, a little over 3% better than the average in terms of left-right and almost 9% better in vertical movement.

Max Fried pitch movement 2024 — Very few pitchers have their curveball’s vertical movement down at the bottom. And that’s a good thing.

What does that do? Fried’s ability to spin it helps him create a multi-plane curveball that starts high or in the middle, before dropping straight down.

His curveball rivals the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola‘s knuckle-curve, etc. Fried’s breaking balls and offspeed stuff helped net him 3,429 whiffs off those pitches from 2022-24. That figure ranks 23rd-best in baseball and impressive given Fried missed a healthy chunk of 2023.

Additionally, he’ll work in a two-seamer, cutter, and changeup to go along with sweeper, slider, curveball, and four-seamer.

Now, while I did mention Fried’s whiffs on the breaking stuff, the reality is Fried is not a power pitcher. He’s never been an elite strikeout or swing-and-miss pitcher. But, he is a pitcher, not a thrower. His ability to change speeds, have clean mechanics, and get hitters to chase is what makes Fried an elite starter.

Per reports, the Yankees will sign Max Fried to an eight-year, $218MM deal. That would be the largest contract ever handed out to a left-hander.

Analysis

It’s the second time in three years that the Yankees have made a big splash for a left-hander. Two years ago, New York signed lefty Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162MM deal. That move has yielded mixed results, although Rodon bounced back well in 2024, as he struck out 195 over 175 frames.

It’s hard to call this a fallback option on Soto, for obvious reasons. However, one takeaway from the Soto negotiations is that if the Yankees were willing to pay $700+MM to their former outfielder, their front office was ready to spend.

With the addition of Fried, the Yankees have a loaded rotation from a personnel standpoint. Their group includes ace Gerrit Cole, Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and now Fried. That is significant depth for sure.

Fried’s proven to be a highly-reliable control artist. As a matter of fact, a Fried/Cole combo rivals the Phillies for best pitching duo in baseball.

However, one other consideration here is whether the Yankees may plan on moving out an arm to get a bat or prospect depth.

Nestor Cortes has one more year left before free agency, while Marcus Stroman has two years of control, one of those years being a vested player option. Neither were in the team’s postseason rotation.

It’s also worth pointing out the impact this will have on the Braves, although it’s certainly not surprising Atlanta didn’t re-sign Fried. Atlanta acquired pitcher Chris Sale last winter as what was very much a plan to cover Fried’s impending loss. The Braves’ rotation without Fried will take a short-term hit but is still fine, with Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Reynaldo Lopez as the team’s top four.

The Braves still need pitching depth, especially since Strider may not be ready for Opening Day after internal brace surgery. But with around $57MM in luxury tax space (per Spotrac) available, a deal like that for Fried likely would have put Atlanta in a place their front office wouldn’t be comfortable with.