The Cubs set their sights on 2025 and beyond with a four-player trade on July 28, one that netted Chicago Isaac Paredes. The move allowed the Cubs to acquire the 2024 AL All-Star, while the Rays acquired a three-player package headlined by Christopher Morel.
The Cubs’ Return
- 1B/3B Isaac Paredes (.246/.354/.436, 16 HR and 36 XBH over 101 G)
The Cubs have sought long-term help at the corner infield positions. Michael Busch established himself as a future piece and now Chicago has Isaac Paredes for the hot corner.
Paredes is one of the more unique players from an analytical standpoint. The 25-year-old has a long swing — eight feet, well above the league average (7.3) — with a lot of hand movement and below-average bat speed. His hard-hit and Barrel% (5.4%) are also below average but that doesn’t tell the whole story regarding Paredes.
He’s got a very lofty swing, to the point where he’ll pop up at pitches with regularity. At the same token, though, his ability to lift and pull the ball greatly benefited the Rays. Paredes belted 51 home runs between 2022-23 and is on pace for another 20+ home run campaign in 2024.
Defensively, Paredes has seen time at first, second, and third over the last three seasons. The 5’11” infielder has the range of a third baseman but the arm of a second baseman.
The trade to the Cubs marks a return for Isaac Paredes, who returns to the organization that originally signed him as an international free agent in 2015. Paredes was flipped to Detroit two years later alongside Jeimer Candelario — who spent time with Chicago last year — for Justin Wilson. The 25-year-old will be arbitration-eligible through the 2027 season.
Paredes ranked #13 on our top 50 trade targets for the deadline, which weighed talent and the likelihood one would be moved.
The Rays’ Return
- INF/OF Christopher Morel (.199/.302/.374, 18 HR and 26 XBH over 102 G)
- RP Hunter Bigge (1.17 ERA, 23 K over 15.1 IP (ACL, A, AAA))
- P Ty Johnson (3.54 ERA, 81 K over 61 IP (A and A+))
The big piece going to Tampa Bay is Christopher Morel, a highly lucrative player who was frustrated at times with the Cubs. Much of that was thanks to wanting more from him both in the field and at the plate.
Why is Morel lucrative? Well, the 25-year-old has eye-popping bat speed (97th percentile), is patient, and will work counts. The bad news? Morel struggles badly with breaking balls and offspeed pitches unless one hangs in the middle of the zone. He’ll overswing, and his high 32.1% Whiff rate this season is indicative of the project the Rays now have with Morel.
Defensively, Morel was a nomad for the Cubs. He never fit in any outfield position despite above-average speed & arm strength, and couldn’t handle third base well. Morel posted a -28 Outs Above Average during his time with Chicago and projects to be a DH.
Tampa also netted Hunter Bigge, a 26-year-old reliever who could be a strong replacement for outgoing reliever Jason Adam. During his abbreviated 3.1 IP cameo with the Cubs this season, Bigge posted a 40.5% Chase%. He’ll pump in a high-90s fastball to go along with a high-80s slider.
The last piece of the deal is Ty Johnson. Johnson followed in the footsteps of Drey Jameson and Chayce McDermott as power pitchers to come out of Ball State. The former 15th-round pick struck out 81 over 61 in his first full pro season, reaching High-A. Johnson has funky arm action but a popping fastball and slider with good horizontal and vertical movement.
Analysis
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated earlier this month that Chicago would entertain offers for rentals but also looking past 2024. That’s exactly what the Cubs did with the addition of Paredes.
The Cubs now have their infield set for 2025 — Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, and Isaac Paredes — assuming no injuries or future moves. Third base was a clear weakness in the short term, as the Cubs do have Matt Shaw in Double-A. But, this move gives Chicago more of a known commodity, one who can record 25-30 home runs on a seasonable basis.
The Rays, meanwhile, continue their overhaul. It might confuse some as to why the Rays traded Paredes but there are plausible solutions. One is the impending arrival of Junior Caminero, who fits at third base and is a slugging infielder, much like Paredes. Tampa also gets a project in Morel, who could be of assistance and take advantage of the short left-field in Tropicana Field.
The other reason, why, is the Rays continue their strategy of shifting toward the future. Even though Tampa has a chance of making the postseason in 2024, their chances of winning it all aren’t high. But with the additions of controllable assets like Morel (controllable through 2028) and Bigge, the Rays move salary off the books and keep their window of competition open.