December 21 was a busy day for first basemen. A few hours after ex-Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt agreed to come to the Yankees, his old team in Arizona acquired Josh Naylor via trade from the Guardians. In return, Cleveland gets a former first-round pick and a 2025 MLB Draft pick.
The Diamondbacks’ Return
- 1B Josh Naylor (.243/.320/.456, 31 HR and 58 XBH over 152 G)
It was a career 2024 for Josh Naylor, who hit 31 home runs in 2024, second-most among first basemen (min. 50% GP at 1B). Only Pete Alonso (32) had more. Naylor also finished sixth in total bases (257).
It came in a year where Naylor played the role of protector to Jose Ramirez and run producer. He drove in 108 runs, second to Ramirez’s 118 on the Guardians.
The 27-year-old Naylor is a power hitter in his prime. Naylor has a longer power stroke and like a lot of power hitters, want to hit it in front and pull the ball.
But, Naylor is not your average hitter: the 27-year-old has above-average power but also a wild swing with head movement — one might remember how Naylor often loses his helmet, which can obstruct pitch sight at times and prevent staying on the baseball — and an aggressive mindset.
Aside from the 31-home run season in 2024, Naylor hit 20 two years over 122 games in 2022, then 17 over 121 in 2023.
The new Diamondback will hack often. He chased 32.2% in 2024 and as high as 39.5% in 2023. However, Naylor doesn’t miss the ball much, as he keeps the bat through enough to make contact, even if he’s late. And a fair amount of times, he’ll work out a hit off of it.
Defensively, Naylor is a short, heavy player at 250 pounds yet has good footwork at first base. Naylor had a +5 Outs Above Average in 2023.
Naylor has one year left of team control before free agency.
The Guardians’ Return
- SP Slade Cecconi (6.66 ERA, 64 K over 77 IP)
- Competitive Balance B Pick in 2025
New Guardians pitcher Slade Cecconi was in contention to be a first-round pick in the shortened 2020 MLB Draft after impressing at times with Miami (FL). He was, as the D-Backs selected him 33rd overall that summer. However, Cecconi has yet to develop as expected.
During the 2024 season, Cecconi had a 6.66 ERA and 1.42 ERA. Advanced analytics also didn’t paint a pretty picture on the former first-round pick, as his chase, whiff, and barrel numbers were all well below-average.
The 25-year-old is an interesting pitcher from a pitch arsenal. Cecconi has a running four-seamer, a pitch that acts more like a two-seamer at time. It doesn’t have a lot of carry (14.7”) for a pitch Cecconi likes to work up in the zone, which can somewhat explain how hitters were able to barrel it up.
Last season, batters hit .329 with 10 home runs and 23 extra-base hits on his four-seamer, which sat in the mid-90s.
There were also times when Cecconi’s slider — his most-used secondary offering, didn’t break as much as one would like it, often flat. On average, his slider had about 1.9” less horizontal movement compared to the league average and above-average drop.
Additionally, Cecconi worked a changeup and curveball.
Cecconi has pitched primarily as a starter but did spend time in the D-Backs’ bullpen in 2023 and 2024. His 2024 as a reliever was not great (1.097 OPS, 12 ER over 11 IP) but posted a 1.93 ERA out of the pen a year earlier.
Cleveland also gets a Competitive Balance B round pick. It will come after the second round of the 2025 MLB Draft.
Analysis
Arizona quickly filled their hole at first base, a day after Christian Walker signed with the Houston Astros. Naylor is the obvious replacement for Walker. Even though he doesn’t get on base like Walker, nor the defensive prowess, Naylor has the power to be a suitable replacement.
It also means Pavin Smith will likely be a platoon bat in 2025, likely a smart move by Arizona. As we documented in our season recap of the D-Backs, Smith has not had success versus lefties throughout his career. However, the former first-round pick put up numbers incumbant of a starter, particularly over the last month. From September 1 onward, Smith hit .290/.384/.677 with six home runs and 12 extra-base hits over 73 PA.
Cleveland, meanwhile, adds a second-round pick — likely the best part of this deal — and Cecconi. Cecconi doesn’t miss many bats, as documented earlier in this piece. But, there are some intrigue here with Cecconi, who pitched fine as a reliever in 2023 with Arizona but yet to put it together as a starter.
There’s also a key component to this deal: Kyle Manzardo.
The Guardians acquired Manzardo in July 2023 for pitcher Aaron Civale. One could assume after the trade that at some point, Manzardo would take over at first base (although possibly not in 2025, thanks to a subsequent acquisition). Cleveland is a team known to move players close to free agency for financial reasons and Naylor is one year away from a nice payday.
The good news for Guardians fans is Manzardo, controllable for the next seasons, looks to be a solid big leaguer. The 24-year-old slugged .540 and belted five home runs over the final month of 2024 and his ability to get on base is well-documented. He profiles as a #2 or #3 hitter and could be a 25-30 home run hitter.
Regardless of where Manzardo actually plays in field, whether first or DH, he does bring a more balanced skillset at the plate than Naylor. He’ll have to replace his presence as a left-handed power bat.
UPDATE (12/21): The Guardians also signed Carlos Santana to a one-year deal.