It’ll be a ‘Red October’ in Philadelphia again. The Phillies clinched the NL East on September 24, their first division title since 2011. And after strong seasons from several familiar faces, the Phillies are in a good position to win the National League for the second time in three seasons. Here’s a closer look at how the Phillies made the 2024 MLB Postseason.
The Good
Philadelphia’s pitching staff was quite good — again. Phillies pitchers owned the seventh-best team ERA (3.77) in baseball this season, and their starters had the fifth-best ERA (3.72) despite a major outlier (which I’ll get to a minute). Their success was led by their two star hurlers.
It’s hard to put into words how good Zack Wheeler is. Yet again, Wheeler posted a 200+ strikeout season, as the 34-year-old struck out 213 this season and is set to finish with career-bests in ERA (2.56) and WHIP (0.96). And, it comes amidst another re-invention from the Phillies’ ace.
Over the years, Wheeler’s made tweaks to his arsenal. He’s gotten more on top of his two-seamer and made it sink more, incorporated a sweeper into his arsenal, and now releases from a lower angle. There are benefits to changing the release angle, especially if it can help a pitcher activate more side-spin on the sinker. This season, batters are hitting just .179 off it, significantly better than the .252 from 2023.
Aaron Nola‘s also been good, although he won’t hit 200 strikeouts for the first time since 2017 unless he strikes out 10 more this season. Both Nola and Wheeler are in the top ten in NL bWAR for pitchers, along with Cristopher Sanchez. No team in the National League had more than two on their team the whole season.
Philly’s bullpen has also been stable. Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm both own sub-2.00 ERA figures, while Carlos Estevez notched six saves since he was acquired in July.
Offensively, the Phillies lost Trea Turner for over a month this spring. However, he still has a chance to record his fourth straight 20-20 campaign. Alec Bohm took a massive step forward in 2024, as he’s on pace to record a career-high in SLG (.457). Bohm isn’t a home run hitter per se but he’s been an extra-base machine — 61 over 140 games — and showed the power many believed he’s always had.
Bohm and Turner, coupled with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwaber, have formed a dynamic offense in Philly. The Phillies were fourth in runs scored (761) in the Majors as of September 25. And, we should note that Kyle Schwarber recorded his third straight season in which he drove in and scored 100+ runs.
The Bad
There haven’t been many negatives for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia locked up a playoff spot over a week before the end of 2024. Not to mention, the Phillies are among the top in many statistical categories. However, two down years from notable pitchers have soured things a bit.
The most notable decrease in production this season came from Taijuan Walker. Walker didn’t have a dominant 2023, although he shined for a good chunk of last summer and won 15 games last year. However, the Phillies didn’t use Walker in the playoffs last season. This year was not the bounce-back he or Phillies fans had hoped for.
Walker owned a 7.10 ERA through his first 19 outings (15 starts) and gave up 24 home runs over 83.2 IP. For reference, the league leader in home runs allowed, Kutter Crawford, yielded 33 over 179.1 IP. Walker’s numbers are down in virtually every metric. His fastball velocity is down almost two MPH and his Whiff% rate dipped four percentage points.
Walker likely won’t be on the Phils’ October roster. But, Philly will need Jose Alvarado to be sharp this postseason. Alvarado still throws incredibly hard but his command has not been great over the second half. The 29-year-old walked 12 over 20.2 IP in the second half and has fallen in the bullpen pecking order. Nonetheless, when clicking, Alvarado is the Phillies’ most potent left-handed reliever.
What to Expect from the Phillies in October
The Phillies will likely be a top-two seed in the National League, although that’s not confirmed yet. As of September 25, Philadelphia was two and a half games ahead of the Brewers for the #2 seed. Should that remain, the Phillies will be in a different position compared to 2022 and 2023.
Rather than playing in a Wild Card round, the Phillies will have the luxury of getting a first-round bye, depending on how one sees it. That would give Nola and Wheeler ample rest before the NLDS but could ice their bats. After all, Philadelphia benefitted when the Braves scored just eight runs over four games against the Phillies last October.
Still, it’s hard to doubt Philadelphia. The Phillies have a deep team top to bottom and their starting rotation is steps ahead of the Dodgers. And, it’s hard to neglect what Philadelphia’s done in the playoffs each of the last two seasons.