Now that December 2025 is here, we are officially a year away from what may very well be the second MLB-MLBPA lockout of the decade. The last one, which started in December 2021, lasted up until March 2022 but avoided disaster. The next fight, though, may not lead to the same fate.
The last lockout
Major League Baseball officially locked out players on December 1, 2021, after the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. It came roughly a month after the 2021 campaign, a full 162-game season. That was the first of its kind in two years after the pandemic shortened the schedule to 60 games back in 2020.
The 2020 shutdown proved to be the first public crack in the negotiations between the league and the players’ association. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally called for a 60-game season after months of negotiation regarding a schedule, player pay, and health guidelines.
Issues regarding what the league would look like in 2022 & beyond, including playoff scheduling, an international draft, and the salary cap — while that was never formally proposed — talking point that’s been in conversation for well over 30 years, running into 2021. Ultimately, the two sides couldn’t agree.
No agreement appeared in February, which led to the delay of spring games and eventually, a one-week delay of the 2022 MLB season. Once the framework for a new CBA was reached in March, games originally cancelled were rescheduled. Many of those were tacked on to the end of the schedule in October.
When the two sides eventually hammered out a deal, it significantly changed the landscape across MLB. The DH role became permanent in both leagues, a boon for players given that it would, theoretically, mean more money available for position players. The league expanded the playoff structure from 10 to 12 teams, with the Wild Card game becoming the Wild Card round.
Additionally, pre-arbitration players were the big winners, important for the union, given that many players don’t reach free agency until their late-20s or early-30s, a major departure from other leagues. It also means that many players receive large contracts after the prototypical peak of an MLB athlete.
Those individuals saw a steep jump in the minimum salary. The last CBA (2017-21) saw the minimum salary go from $535,000 in 2017 to $570,500 in 2021. It rose over $100,000 once the new CBA was installed. For 2026, the minimum salary will be close to $800,000.
What’s at stake in 2026 & 2027?
A lot — and the two sides have already begun the fight.
The two sides have already laid out their cases publicly. Tony Clark and the MLBPA are in opposition to a salary cap, the same position the union has held for decades. Manfred, in February, stated that he’s aware of fan concern regarding competitiveness, in light of the Dodgers’ spending spree that helped Los Angeles win in 2024 (and 2025).
Several teams have spoken out publicly regarding payroll spending. Even teams with a history of spending.
Hal Steinbrenner, the owner of the Yankees, stated in January that it’s hard to keep up with what the Dodgers have done from a spending standpoint. Orioles owner David Rubenstein stated in early 2025 that he wished the league would install a salary cap.
Even though there are still issues, like an international draft and free agency requirements, that were not inherently addressed in the last negotiations — and likely will this time around — the salary cap, as well as a floor, will be the crown jewel of discussion points.
MLB is the only one of the “big four” North American leagues to not install a salary cap. Salary caps come in different shapes and forms. However, all are dictated based on how much league revenue is accumulated.
Rather than a cap, the league currently hits teams that go over the luxury tax threshold with added taxes, based on the amount spent and the number of consecutive years of overage spending.
The installation of a cap has been resisted for decades by the union. So much so that the players went on strike in 1994, as the union played that season without a CBA. The strike wiped out the 1994 World Series and nearly threatened to leak into the 1995 campaign. That caused teams to consider using “replacement players,” including ex-MLBers and Minor Leaguers.
Brian Daubach, Shane Spencer, Doug Sisk, and Rick Reed were among the players who participated in 1995 Spring Training during the strike.
Nonetheless, nothing is set in stone until it is. However, the waiting game and the noise over the next year will be interesting to see, to say the least.
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