The 2024 MLB regular season is almost done but a lot still needs to be decided. No team has clinched a playoff spot and all three division titles are very much in play. These past few weeks have seen a significant shake-up in particular, as the Astros have picked up steam in the AL West title hunt, while the Tigers remain alive. So, how does the race look right now? Here’s a breakdown of every American League (AL) team’s path to the playoffs.

Astros

• Record: (77-68, 3.5 games ahead of Mariners in AL West)
• Remaining games: x3 vs. Angels (.411 Win%), x3 @ Padres (.558), x4 @ Angels (.411), x3 vs. Mariners (.507), x3 @ Guardians (.575)

Can the Astros win the AL West again? Houston is certainly on that path, as Houston’s gone 22-16 over their last 38 to move to four games up on the Mariners after a victory over the A’s on September 12. And, it’s been a group effort.

Yes, Yordan Alvarez (.313 AVG, .966 OPS, 32 HR) has helped lead the charge. However, eight Astros have hit the double-digit marker in home runs, including Jake Meyers and a stabilizer at first in Jon Singleton. Houston’s offense has also managed to damage sans Kyle Tucker for much of this season. And on the pitching front, both their bullpen and rotation have been good. Zoning in on their rotation, Houston starters have the third-best K% (24.2%) in the league.

However, one key question that will need to be answered is whether Justin Verlander makes the postseason roster. Verlander (5.30 ERA) owns the lost Whiff% (21.9%) of his career and the likes of Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, and Framber Valdez have excelled.

Guardians

• Record: 84-62 (4.5 games ahead of Royals in AL Central)
• Remaining games: x4 vs. Rays (.486), x4 vs. Twins (.534), x3 @ Cardinals (.507), x2 vs. Reds (.480), x3 vs. Astros (.534)

The Guardians remain on top of the AL Central and in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye. That wasn’t a luxury Cleveland had two years ago when they won the division, although one could argue it isn’t a blessing, either.

The Guardians’ offense is something to behold. Jose Ramirez set a career-high in stolen bases (39) and is on the verge of his third 35+ home run season. Josh Naylor and Jhonkensy Noel have provided additional pop, while Steven Kwan has yet again been a reliable leadoff man. Couple that with a good but not great rotation and a dominant closer in Emmanuel Clase, and that’s how the Guardians have gotten here.

Whether Cleveland has the rotation needed to win in October remains to be seen. Shane Bieber went down early, while Alex Cobb recently landed back on the IL again. A lot of the load will be on Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd to deliver for a team that hasn’t locked up a spot but should comfortably make it in.

Mariners

• Record: 74-72 (3.5 GB of Astros in AL West, 4.0 GB in AL Wild Card)
• Remaining games: x4 vs. Rangers (.479), x3 vs. Yankees (.575), x3 @ Rangers (.479), x3 @ Astros (.534), x3 vs. Athletics (.435)

The Mariners fell to four games back of the Astros on September 12 in what may be Seattle’s lone path to the playoffs. Seattle has three games with Houston in the last week of the 2024 campaign which, if won, can make it a different race.

Much like 2023, Seattle’s pitching has been the story. The Mariners’ pitching staff owns a 3.52 team ERA this season, second-best behind the Braves. Offensively, though, the M’s have struggled. Seattle is 24th in the league in runs scored (596) and 20th in that category since August 1, despite the midseason addition of Randy Arozarena.

Seattle may have to do this without Luis Castillo, out with a hamstring strain. But, the M’s are alive.

Orioles

• Record: 83-64 (+4.5 GB in AL Wild Card, 1.5 GB in AL East)
• Remaining games: x3 @ Tigers (.514), x3 vs. Giants (.493), x3 vs. Tigers (.514), x3 @ Yankees (.575), x3 @ Twins (.534)

Last year, the Orioles won the race for the AL East. But for right now, the Yankees have a hold on the top spot. It’s been a back-and-forth race, as both teams have spent a significant amount of time atop the East.

The O’s are knee-deep in injuries, as a collection of key pieces, including Danny Coloumbe, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, and Grayson Rodriguez are on the IL. Kyle Bradish is done for the year thanks to Tommy John surgery. Still, the O’s have the talent to win the division. One could argue the Orioles are in a significantly better position, especially with Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin in tow. Eflin, over his first eight starts since the O’s acquired him, struck out 38 over 38 and posted a 2.37 ERA.

Baltimore will see the Tigers a lot over the next 10 days before a titanic clash with the Yankees. Luckily for the O’s, Baltimore will dodge Tarik Skubal the first time around.

Red Sox

• Record: 74-72 (4.0 GB in AL Wild Card, 10.0 GB in AL East)
• Remaining games: x4 @Yankees (.575), x3 @ Rays (.486), x3 vs. Twins (.534), x3 @ Blue Jays (.469), x3 vs. Rays (.486)

The Red Sox aren’t out of it yet, although Boston is on the fringes of falling out of the race. Over the Sox’s last 38 games, Boston went 17-21.

It’s been a great year for Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, two of the league’s best hitters. However, their rotation has been enigmatic. Tanner Houck has been more hittable and has missed fewer bats over the second half. Brayan Bello, though, is a different story. The young righty owns a 3.75 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 57.2 second-half innings.

Out of all the remaining teams in the hunt, Boston has arguably the toughest path. Not only do the Sox have a four-game hill to climb in the AL Wild Card but a tough schedule that includes four with the Yankees, three with the Twins, and six against a feisty Rays team. Now, if the Sox can win those games against the Twins, things may look different.

Royals

• Record: 80-67 (+1.5 in AL Wild Card, 4.5 GB in AL Central)
• Remaining games: x3 @ Pirates (.479), x3 vs. Tigers (.514), x3 vs. Giants (.493), x3 @ Nationals (.448), x3 @ Braves (.541)

The Royals have an interesting schedule the rest of the way, as just one of their final five opponents is in the American League. That lone AL team left on the Royals’ schedule is the Tigers, in a pivotal series between two teams looking to make it to October. Aside from that series and one with the Braves, the Royals have the opportunity to rack up wins.

Kansas City doesn’t have the longest postseason drought but it’s close. The Royals last made it in 2025 when the franchise won their second World Series title and much like that group, this new homegrown group — aside from franchise stalwart Salvador Perez and timely pitching pickups — looks poised to do damage for years in the American League.

Speaking of those pitching pickups, including free agent signing Seth Lugo and trade acquisition Cole Ragans, the Royals will need them to give them quality outings. That’s been the case thus far. Lugo leads the Majors in innings pitched (193), while Ragans is not far behind. Ragans is the AL leader in strikeouts (211). And offensively, Bobby Witt Jr. has been doing his thing all year, as he leads the MLB in total hits (195).

Tigers

• Record: 75-71 (3.0 GB in AL Wild Card, 9.5 GB in AL Central)
• Remaining games: x3 vs. Orioles (.565), x3 @ Royals (.544), x3 @ Orioles (.565), x3 vs. Rays (.486), x3 vs. White Sox (.224)

You can make the Tigers 75-72 after Detroit lost on September 12 against the Rockies, a tough loss given the Tigers were up after six. It put a damper on what’s been a sensational run for the Tigers of late. Detroit won 23 games since the start of August before the 12th, third-best behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That stretch took the Tigers from nine games back in the Wild Card hunt to three.

It’s even more remarkable when considering the Tigers don’t have now-Dodgers pitcher Jack Flaherty, nor an injured Reese Olson. Tarik Skubal, however, has been money in virtually every start over the last six weeks. But, the offense has been quietly productive, as well. Riley Greene recorded a 20+ home run campaign already, while Spencer Torkelson racked up eight extra-base hits over 22 games since he returned from the Minors.

The Tigers end the season with the White Sox. But, major work will need to be done for those games to matter. Otherwise, one of the longest active postseason droughts will continue. Tough games against the Royals and Orioles await.

Twins

• Record: 78-68 (3.5 games ahead of Red Sox in AL Wild Card, 6.0 GB in AL Central)
• Remaining games: x3 vs, Reds (.480), x4 @ Guardians (.575), x3 @ Red Sox (.507), x3 vs. Marlins (.370), x3 vs. Orioles (.565)

Minnesota squeaked out a series victory with the Angels at home, much needed after a difficult stretch. The Twins lost five of six before that series, putting their chances of making the playoffs somewhat in peril.

The Twins’ offense has helped carry them this season, as Minnesota sat 10th in the league in home runs (175) as of this writing. That’s despite injuries to Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, both of whom have played less than 100 games this season. And pitching-wise, the loss of Joe Ryan has depleted their rotation.

Minnesota’s schedule from here on out isn’t easy. A treacherous seven-game road trip to Cleveland and Boston may decide their fate.

Yankees

• Record: 84-62 (1.5 ahead of Orioles in AL East)
• Remaining games: x4 vs. Red Sox (.507), x3 @ Mariners (.507), x3 @ Athletics (.438), x3 vs. Orioles (.565), x3 vs. Pirates (.479)

Much has been made about the Yankees’ pitching. Clay Holmes, a steady shutdown arm for the Yankees over the last two seasons, was removed from the closer’s role. Nestor Cortes was briefly removed from the rotation. Still, their pitching, led by Gerrit Cole and a white-hot bullpen group that includes Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle, has kept the Yanks in games and helped them win contests.

The Yankees’ offense has also taken a hit of late. Aaron Judge, the likely AL MVP, hit just .204 (.618 OPS) with no home runs from August 26-September 11 (15 GP). It’s a worse stretch compared to how he started, as he batted .204 with two home runs and seven extra-base hits over his first 15 games of 2024. And aside from Judge, Alex Verdugo (.658 OPS) and Anthony Volpe (.676) haven’t hit for much power.

What will likely decide the AL East, however, will be those three games with the O’s from September 24-26.

All records and stats as of September 12.