In a significant trade between two AL East rivals, the Orioles acquired Zach Eflin for their stretch run. The O’s get a middle-of-the-rotation arm for their stretch run, while the Rays added three Minor League prospects, including two former second-round picks.

The Orioles’ Return

• SP Zach Eflin (4.09 ERA, 87 K over 110 IP)

The Rays gave Zach Eflin the largest free agent contract in franchise history in the winter of 2022 when the ex-Phillie inked a three-year, $40MM deal to return home. The signing worked great for both sides, particularly for Eflin.

Eflin won 16 games for the Rays in 2023, as he struck out 186 over 177.2 IP, posted a 3.5 bWAR, and finished sixth in the AL Cy Young Award vote. And, he helped keep together a rotation that lost key contributors Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan.

This season, Eflin’s strikeout numbers (7.1 K/9) are down significantly. Still, he owns a good FIP (3.65), thanks in large part to his ability to control the strike zone. Eflin is second in the Majors in BB% (2.8%) among qualified pitchers, behind only George Kirby (2.6%).

Much of that is thanks to his sinker, which Statcast states has above-average vertical and horizontal movement based on its calculations. Eflin can pound the zone with the sinker, which can flatten out at times. But when he has feel for it, it’s a weapon that can run in on righties or be a come-backer against lefties.

It’s not a shock that the sinkerballer has a high GB% rate. Eflin’s 50.4% GB% in 2024 was well above the league average.

That’s just one weapon in his arsenal. He’ll use a high-80s cutter that’s mainly a weapon against lefties, a high-70s knuckle-curve, along with a harder sweeper. Opposing batters are hitting just .184 off the sweeper.

Eflin has one year left before free agency. The moves came hours after Baltimore acquired RP Seranthony Dominguez and OF Cristian Pache from the Phillies

The Rays’ Return

• OF Matthew Etzel (.289/.363/.445, six HR and 28 XBH over 83 G (A+ and AA))
• SP Jackson Baumeister (3.06 ERA, 91 K over 70.2 IP (A+))
• INF/OF Mac Horvath (.232/.328/.417, nine HR and 30 XBH over 70 G (A+))

Arguably the best player Tampa received in this deal was Jackson Baumeister.

Baumeister had an inconsistent track record at Florida State; the righty netted plenty of strikeouts (12.7 K/9) in his college career but also plenty of walks (4.6 BB/9). Baltimore made him a second-round pick in 2023 and the 22-year-old pitched very well before the trade.

Baumeister struck out 91 over 70.2 IP with Aberdeen (A+). However, his WHIP (1.36) was high thanks to a high walk rate. He’s got a power fastball to go along with a curveball and slider and projects as a mid-rotation starter. Baumeister’s walk rate needs to come down. Still, he’s got the highest ceiling out of the three prospects acquired.

The other notable piece is Mac Horvath. Horvath was a slugger at UNC, as he belted 24 home runs in Chapel Hill last season before the O’s picked him with one of their 2023 second-round picks.

The 23-year-old put up modest numbers in Aberdeen, including 24 steals. On the other hand, he was vulnerable to the strikeout (61 over 60 games in 2023 with UNC) in college and has a long, yet powerful swing. Good for power, not so much for whiffs.

Lastly, Matthew Etzel is an athlete. A 2023 tenth-round pick out of Southern Miss, Etzel had 41 stolen bases on the season across two levels in 2024. And, he’ll work counts, as averaged a little over 3.8 pitchers per plate appearance.

Analysis

It’s not hard to see why the O’s like Eflin. He forces ground balls, which works well for a good defensive infield in Baltimore, and keeps the baseball in the park. And, Baltimore didn’t need to break the bank for a #3 starter who can slot in right behind Grayson Rodriguez and Corbin Burnes.

Baltimore also held on to all of their top prospects, as well.

As for the Rays, Tampa dealt away another starter. Just weeks earlier, the Rays traded starter Aaron Civale to the Brewers. However, this move is a little different, as Tampa traded away one of their best starters to a division rival.

But, Tampa’s rotation is starting to get back to full health. Jeffrey Springs is nearing a return, while Shane Baz has pitched well since his MLB return. And given that Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan are also on the mend, it did make sense for the Rays to move his 2025 salary off the books.