Lucas Giolito Signs with Red Sox: What to Make of Move

The Boston Red Sox fortified their 2024 rotation on December 29, as right-hander Lucas Giolito is reportedly headed to Boston. It’ll be a fresh start for Giolito after a bizarre two seasons in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Cleveland. Here’s a closer look at Giolito.

A Look at Giolito

The 2022 campaign was not a great one for Lucas Giolito, who pitched very well from 2019-21.

Over those three years, Giolito punched over 200 batters in two of them and emerged as one of the game’s brightest starters. Things didn’t go well for Giolito in 2022 but he rebounded for much of last season.

Lucas Giolito whiff map 2023 — Giolito excelled when working both up with the fastball and down with the change and slider. All three are above-average offerings.

Giolito struck out 117 over 112.1 IP with the White Sox last year and owned a sub-4.00 ERA. However, things crumbled after he was traded to the Angels in late July. The righty gave up 49 earned runs over 63.1 IP with the Angels and Guardians and opposing hitters had a .918 OPS against him.

So, what went wrong with Giolito over the last two months? Well, Giolito’s changeup and slider, both above-average offerings, were still getting outs. The four-seam fastball, though, was a different story.

The new Red Sox gave up 10 home runs off the fastball over the final two months of the year. That figure was most in the Majors, and one ahead of Cristian Javier and ex-teammate Lance Lynn.

Giolito’s fastball on the year had a mean IVB of 18.1”, which is above-average, and his ability to get movement on the fastball — which sits in the 93-94 MPH range, but plays up with extension — and ride makes a major difference.

That figure went down slightly over the final two months. But another concerning element at play was that Giolito’s mechanics just seemed to be off. The righty left his fastball over the plate way too much, wasn’t extending out as much — it sat at about 6.7” as opposed to the 6.9” from earlier in the year — as he did back with Chicago, and his release point was not particularly consistent.

From 03-28 to 07-30-2023.
From 07-31 to 10-02-2023.

Now, more often or not there is some variation throughout the year between pitch speeds, extension, etc. with most pitchers. That’s expected with any human action.

However, the reality is that Giolito’s fastball metrics — whether it be traditional or advanced — went down virtually in every category. Giolito, though, will get a fresh start with the Red Sox.

We rated Giolito the 15th-best pitcher available this offseason on the free agent market. Per ESPN, Giolito was given a two-year deal worth $38.5MM with an opt-out after 2024.

Analysis

Armed with at least three above-average pitches, Giolito was going to be a popular name regardless of the struggles last season. Now, he’ll head to a team in Boston that needed starting pitching this offseason.

Boston’s starting pitching in the second half wasn’t that bad, as Red Sox starters owned the 7th-best SIERA (4.09) from the All-Star break onward. However, Brayan Bello struggled and James Paxton gassed out in what was a bizarre year for the Sox.

With Giolito in tow, Boston can now begin planning their 2024 rotation. Right now, a rotation of Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, and Kutter Crawford with Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta likely fighting out for the fifth spot would make sense.

The health of Sale will be something to watch yet again in 2024. However, having a veteran like Giolito should help support what will be a rotation mix of young and experienced starters.