The Mets made yet another pitching addition on December 6. Clay Holmes, the former Yankees closer, was reportedly signed to a three-year deal by the Mets. However, the Mets are reportedly planning on moving him to the rotation, to a role he hasn’t had since 2018.
A Look at Holmes
The Yankees acquired Clay Holmes during the middle of the 2021 season and despite some hiccups, was a valuable reliever for the team in The Bronx.
Holmes took over as Yankees closer in 2022 after Aroldis Chapman and excelled, as he notched 20 saves and provided much-needed stability. A year later, Holmes struck out 71 over 63 innings, picked up 24 saves, and was nearly-unhittable at times. The 31-year-old owned a 1.00 ERA or lower in three of six months in 2023.
During the 2024 season, Holmes’ numbers were fine on paper. He struck out 68 over 63 frames and saw a decrease in BB%. The problem for Holmes, though, was his ability to shut down games in the ninth inning. Holmes blew 13 saves during the regular season. He also gave up a home run to David Fry in the 2024 playoffs that gave the Guardians life in the ALCS.
His regular-season struggles opened the door for Luke Weaver to take over as Yankees’ closer.
What made Holmes such an effective reliever was his ability to induce ground balls and beat hitters down in the zone. Holmes throws a hard, high-90s sinker that hard downward movement and paired it with two breaking balls. One was a harder, high-80s slider and the other, a sweeper.
Holmes worked at his best when working down in the zone, and in on right-handed hitters. That helped him post well above-average Barrel% (5.6%) and GB% (64.6%).
He also induced a whiff 30.2% of the time in 2024. However, much of those whiffs were off the breaking balls, which played well off his sinker.
Per reports, the Mets signed Clay Holmes to a three-year deal worth $38MM. Holmes will receive an opt-out after 2026 and as mentioned earlier, the Mets reportedly view him as a starter.
Analysis
The addition of Holmes may round out the likely top five for the Mets’ rotation. As things stand right now, their 2025 rotation tentatively includes Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and the newly-signed right-hander Frankie Montas.
There are, however, a lot of interesting things about this move. The pickup of Holmes continues a trend of Major League teams signing relievers with the intention of making them a starter.
Two years ago, the Padres signed ex-Met Seth Lugo as a starter and that moved worked very well. Lugo finished 2024 as the runner-up in the AL Cy Young vote and has been a reliable innings-eater each of the last two seasons. Reynaldo Lopez, signed by the Braves last November, finished last year with a 1.99 ERA and was one of the best pitchers over the final two months of the season.
The thing about Lopez and Lugo, though, is that both had starting experience — Holmes made four career MLB starts, all in 2018 — and the stuff to be starters. Lugo was a highly-effective starter at the beginning of his career before the Mets converted him to a full-time reliever due to a partially torn UCL. Lopez started his MLB career as a starter had some good outings over his first three seasons.
Both Lugo and Lopez also had weapons to work with. Lugo had four to five above-average offerings before he went to San Diego, then expanded his arsenal further. Lopez, on the other hand, had an above-average fastball with a hard slider, coupled with a sneaky changeup and curveball.
Even Jordan Hicks, who moved back to the bullpen in 2024 after a run in the Giants’ rotation, has a sinker/splitter/slider combo, with a four-seamer mixed in.
Holmes has a four-seamer but has used it three times over the last three seasons. Effectively, he’s a sinker/slider with two different shapes to his slider: a regular, gyro slider and a sweeping slider. The 31-year-old did at one point use a curveball. However, Holmes stopped using it in 2021.
Adjustments will likely be made. Holmes has very good stuff and the kind of stuff the Mets covet. But, his sinker is a true sinker. To effectively work the upper half of the strike zone, Holmes will likely need to leverage that four-seamer more.
Additionally, it marks yet another short-term deal on a pitcher for the Mets. Just in the last 13 months, the Mets have signed Montas, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino to either one or two-year deals. Holmes is on a three-year deal. Although, this one isn’t a lengthy committment.