Cleveland is bring back their ace. The Guardians have reportedly re-signed Shane Bieber on a two-year deal, and includes an opt-out after 2025. Bieber will return to Ohio after a lost 2024 campaign after he underwent season-ending surgery.
A Look at Bieber
There’s not too much to talk about regarding Shane Bieber‘s 2024 season, despite what was an incredible two starts he had.
Bieber dominated the Athletics and Mariners during Cleveland’s first road trip of the year. The 29-year-old struck out 11 A’s over six scoreless frames on March 28, then threw six more innings without allowing a run on April 2 against the Mariners. In total, Bieber struck out 20 and conceded just one walk along the way.
Unfortunately, that’s all the Guardians saw of Bieber in 2024. The California native’s right elbow required UCL reconstruction surgery, one year after Bieber was limited to 21 starts. Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024, putting him on path to return sometime during the middle of 2025.
The injury came at exactly the wrong time for Bieber. He entered free agency this winter for the first time in his career, after what was a relatively successful run in Cleveland — which will continue. Bieber struck out 958 batters over his first 843 Major League innings and his stuff earned him two All-Star appearances and the 2020 AL Cy Young.
From 2019-23, Bieber finished 12th in total strikeouts (820) and ninth-best (min. 400 IP) in FIP (3.12)
Bieber has never been a hard thrower compared to MLB standards. The 29-year-old’s mean fastball velocity has dipped over the years, as it dropped to 91.3 MPH during his injury-riddled 2023 campaign. What Bieber does have, though, is plus extension to make the fastball speed up, plus above-average carry. The average IVB on Bieber’s fastball in 2024 was 17.5”, 1.7” above the league average.
Aside from the four-seamer, Bieber has added more dimension to his arsenal. Bieber upped the usage on his changeup more during his brief 2024 campaign, something he’s done in recent years to fool hitters.
Bieber will also break out a harder cutter, a pitch he’ll use against both lefties and righties and can, optically, have the same movement profile at times compared to his plus slider.
Per ESPN, the Guardians re-signed Shane Bieber to a one-year deal worth $14MM. The deal also includes a $16MM player option for 2026.
Analysis
It felt like this move made too much sense for both sides.
Bieber, coming off a lost 2024 campaign, gets a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after 2025. Given that he won’t be ready for Opening Day — and there’s no guarantee he will pitch next season — the security is important.
The Guardians’ ace gets the chance to stick with pitching coach Carl Willis and pitch once more for a team he’s become very comfortable with.
As for the Guardians, Cleveland needed another arm. The Guardians entered the offseason with questions within their prospective 2025 rotation. Matthew Boyd, who pitched well late in 2024, is now with the Cubs. Triston McKenzie and Gavin Williams both regressed last season.
That leaves a potential Opening Day 2025 rotation of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen, as well as — potentially one or both — McKenzie and Williams.
Yes, Cleveland does have some good pitching prospects in the pipeline. Parker Messick and Doug Nikhazy are two of those aforementioned names. But, there’s no guarantee either will help Cleveland come 2025. Bieber, if his rehab goes right, can.
Make sure to check out more of our free agency coverage, including the Rays’ recent signing of Danny Jansen.