On MLB Trade Deadline day, the Orioles acquired former All-Star Trevor Rogers via trade. The 26-year-old lefty was acquired for two hitting prospects, the most notable being Connor Norby. Norby was rated the fifth-best prospect in the Orioles system per MLB.com.

The Orioles’ Return

• SP Trevor Rogers (4.53 ERA, 85 K over 105.1 IP)

Three years ago, former first-round pick Trevor Rogers was poised to be a key piece of the Marlins’ budding pitching staff. Rogers struck out 157 over 133 frames during his rookie season and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind Jonathan India. Since then, things have gone awry for Rogers.

The left-hander was besieged by back and lat problems in 2022 and posted a 5.47 ERA that year. A year later, a biceps strain helped limit Rogers to just four starts. This season, Rogers owns a career-low 7.3 K/9 rate, his worst Hard Hit% (43.5%) rate of his career and a continued loss in velocity. Rogers’ mean fastball velocity this season is 92.0 MPH, down from 94.5 MPH in 2021.

The 26-year-old, when healthy, is one of the game’s more intriguing pitchers in the game. He’ll utilize a sinker with above-average movement per Statcast and a four-seamer that plays up thanks to plus extension and can be very hard to hit with his flat approach angle.

Rogers’ slider has seen a lot of plate this season, as opposing hitters are batting .270 off it in 2024. That’s significantly up from two seasons ago (.208), although the more concerning dip is the 13% drop in whiffs compared to 2021.

Rogers isn’t a power pitcher per se; the lefty will often work in his changeup and sinker and posted a GB% north of 50% last year. That’s important to note, especially with the deep left field wall in Baltimore.

Rogers is under control through the end of the 2026 season.

The Marlins’ Return

• INF Connor Norby (.188/.188/.406, two HR, and three XBH over 9 G)
• OF Kyle Stowers (.306/.297/.500, one HR, and five XBH over 19 G)

The big piece headed back to Miami is Connor Norby. Norby was one of several big-name infield prospects in the O’s farm system, alongside Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday. The 2021 second-round pick belted 29 home runs in the Minors two years ago and added 21 more to his ledger last season in Norfolk. Norby cracked 38 extra-base hits over 80 games with the Tides this season.

Norby has a simple, fluid approach at the plate. He’ll generate loft with his swing, not a lot of deep hand movement, which keeps the swing short. The 5’10” infield has the potential to be an above-average power hitter. However, Norby will need to watch the strikeouts. He went down on strikes 104 times over 80 games in Triple-A this season and had a 30.1% Whiff% rate during his brief tenure with Baltimore.

The other piece involved is Kyle Stowers. Stowers, a 2019 second-round pick, put up strong home run and extra-base hits totals in the Minors. The 26-year-old belted 27 home runs across three levels in 2021 and 21 during the 2023 campaign. This year, he cracked 18 with Triple-A and another one with the big club.

Stowers can get after pitches in the lower half of the zone and flashed above-average bat speed (74.2 MPH) during his brief stint with the O’s this season.

Analysis

The market for rentals, as indicated with the Yusei Kikuchi deal. Toronto was able to acquire top of Houston’s top prospects, plus a toolsy infielder in Will Wagner, for the former All-Star and pending free agent. Baltimore’s gone a different route this past week, as the Orioles targeted starter Zach Eflin — signed through next season — in a previous trade and added another controllable arm in Trevor Rogers.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the Orioles make changes with how Rogers uses his arsenal. He gets movement on his sinker, so one thing to watch moving forward is whether Baltimore leverages that and have him use it more, as compared to his fastball. This season, Rogers used his four-seamer 33% of the time and the sinker 23%.

As for the Marlins, Miami continues to add hitting prospects, a need for their organization. Norby and Stowers join Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez, Deyvison De Los Santos, and Jared Serna as among midseason acquisitions by the Marlins in trades. Miami’s had significant problems in recent years with developing hitting talent; Jacob Berry (.620 OPS in 2024) and now-Athletic JJ Bleday are among notable examples.

Norby and Stowers are players who can immediately slot into Miami’s lineup.