In a trade between two first-place teams, the Phillies and Orioles completed a three-player deal that included all Major Leaguers. The Phillies acquired former AL All-Star Austin Hays in the trade, while the O’s received former top prospect Cristian Pache and veteran reliever Seranthony Dominguez.

The Phillies’ Return

• OF Austin Hays (.255/.316/395, three HR, 16 XBH over 175 PA)

Austin Hays was a top prospect in the Orioles system six years ago after a meteoric rise to the Majors throughout 2017. Hays has never lived up to those lofty expectations but was a productive hitter for much of his tenure in Baltimore.

That was the case over the first half of 2023 when Hays hit .314/.355/.498 (.853 OPS) with nine home runs and 33 extra-base hits. His numbers in the second half (.667 OPS) took a dip. In 2024, Hays has fallen on the Orioles’ depth chart thanks to the bat of Colton Cowser.

Hays doesn’t have as much power compared to Cowser. Nonetheless, he’s a very serviceable hitter. A 2023 AL All-Star, Hays hit a career-high 22 home runs in Baltimore in 2021, noteworthy given his power numbers have dropped each season since the installment of the ‘Great Wall of Baltimore’ was put up in Camden Yards. The 29-year-old posted a .201 ISO, above average, in 2021 but just a .140 ISO in 2024.

There is aggressiveness in Hays’ game. He’s a chronic chaser. His Chase% in 2024 before the trade was 31.8%, below the league average. Hays’ career-low in that mark was 36.2%. And while he hasn’t seen as many breaking balls (31.4% in 2024, compared to 34.9% in 2023) this season, he’s missed at those pitches six percent more and been put away eight percent more off the breaking stuff.

Hays is under control through 2025.

The Orioles’ Return

• RP Seranthony Dominguez (4.75 ERA, 40 K over 36 IP)
• OF Cristian Pache (.202/.288/.269, no HR, six XBH over 118 PA)

Seranthony Dominguez, who has an $8MM team option for 2025, was a key piece of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2022. Dominguez posted an above-average 32.6% Whiff%, struck out 61 over 51 frames, and was sensational in the MLB Postseason.

Two years later, his ERA has ballooned to 4.75 ERA, although that doesn’t tell the whole story. Dominguez has largely been an effective reliever, as he’s limited hard contact despite not missing (24.8%) not as many bats. However, he’s left his slider up too much, which has resulted in four home runs allowed off it. For reference, he gave up four home runs off his slider in 2022-23.

Dominguez works with three primary pitches: aside from the slider, he’ll throw a hard four-seamer and a running two-seamer. He’ll dial his fastballs up to the high-90s, which pairs well with his high-80s slider with late break.

The other piece involved is Cristian Pache. Philadelphia acquired Pache before the start of 2023 after Oakland DFA’d him, as the former top prospect was out of options. Pache’s always been known as a defensive specialist with good speed and a good glove in center. However, he’s never known as a plus hitter.

While Pache did post a .736 OPS over 95 plate appearances in 2023, he recorded a .557 OPS over 118 PA in 2024.

There is some intrigue here, thanks to his 45.2% Hard Hit%. But, it’s more of a flat, level swing and he gets beaten badly by breaking balls and offspeed stuff.

Analysis

There was speculation the Orioles were interested in dealing away some of their outfield and infield depth just a few days ago. However, that speculation was on Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. Either of the two could still be traded before July 30. However, the Hays trade does make more sense.

The O’s are well-set in the outfield with Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander for the rest of 2024, which left Hays in a tough spot. Baltimore did pick up Pache, although he’ll likely be used in a reserve role. However, the draw here is that Baltimore was able to pick up another reliever in Dominguez, joining fellow ex-Phllie Craig Kimbrel, Keegan Akin, and Yennier Cano.

As for the Phillies, Philadelphia’s been linked to outfield help. However, one name linked to the Phillies up until a few days ago was Brent Rooker.

Hays doesn’t have great speed, so he’s realistically just a corner outfielder even though he does have experience in center. However, the 29-year-old should be a platoon option in left field alongside Brandon Marsh. That would make sense, given Hays hit lefties (.328/.394/.500) well before the trade.