Phillies Sign Spencer Turnbull: What to Make of Move

With Spring Training set to start, the Phillies — who have been somewhat quiet since the re-signing of Aaron Nola — added another arm to their pitching staff. Former Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull reportedly joined the Phillies on a one-year deal after two injury-riddled campaigns.

A Look at Turnbull

Two years ago, it looked like Spencer Turnbull would be a key piece of the Tigers’ rebuild along with Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Tarik Skubal. However, injuries have wreaked havoc on the former second-round pick over the last three years.

From 2019-21, Turnbull posted respectable 4.13 ERA/3.67 FIP figures and struck out 241 over 255 innings. His 2021 season, albeit abbreviated, was strong. The ex-Tiger posted a 2.88 ERA through 50 innings and did a very good job of inducing weak contact.

Turnbull’s four-seamer didn’t have a lot of carry (12.3” IVB) back in 2021 but it was down (10.9”) for 2023. Given those low numbers, it’s not a shock that the new Phillie has also leveraged a sinker in his career.

That wasn’t the only thing down in 2023, as his velocity — even though he could touch the mid-90s — was down by about one MPH on average from two years earlier.

Turnbull does, however, have a good sinker that does differ in movement from the four-seamer. The 31-year-old’s slider is also a very potent pitch, one with bite and can run away from right-handed hitters.

And, Turnbull’s shown a very good changeup when healthy. It’s a pitch that breaks down hard, almost like a screwball. However, he primarily breaks it out in certain situations and almost exclusively against left-handed hitters.

Armed with at least four average to above-average offerings, it seemed like Turnbull would be a building block for the Tigers.

However, Tommy John surgery sidelined him for all of 2022. Turnbull made just seven starts and posted a 7.26 ERA in 2023 before he was shut down in May with neck discomfort. He made several starts in the Minors in the summer but didn’t return to Detroit.

Spencer Turnbull was non-tendered by Detroit in November. Now, he’s reportedly set to join the Phillies on a one-year deal worth $2MM. He could also earn an additional $2MM in incentives.

Analysis

The addition of Spencer Turnbull reunited the righty with Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was with Detroit when he was drafted back in 2014. And, the move is a low-risk one that could help fill out the Phillies’ rotation.

There was some talk that the Phillies could make a run at Jordan Montgomery, to join a rotation that’s set to include Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez. However, a move like that — unless it would be just a one-year deal — could complicate any future extension for Wheeler. Wheeler’s a free agent after 2024.

While the injury bug has hit Turnbull well in recent years, the stuff he showed in 2021 and his ability to change speeds and induce weak contact — his 5.0% Weak% in 2021 was above league average — make him a very intriguing arm.