The Phillies made an addition to their outfield on December 19, as ex-Twin Max Kepler reportedly agreed to join the reigning NL East champions. It’s a one-year deal for Kepler, who has struggled to stay healthy over the years but showed a quick bat when healthy.
A Look at Kepler
The 2024 season was somewhat of a wash for Max Kepler. The 31-year-old missed time early on with a knee contusion, then was shut down in September with left patellar tendinitis. He was not available for most of September for the Twins, a month that saw Minnesota fall from comfortably in a playoff spot to out altogether.
Kepler’s second injury ended a 15-year run in the Twins organization. And, it didn’t end on a great note, as he hit just eight home runs and 30 extra-base hits over 105 games with the Twins. Injuries, though, give Kepler somewhat of a pass.
When Kepler was healthy, the veteran outfielder was able to put up strong numbers. That hasn’t been an easy thing to see happen, as Kepler had IL stints in 2021 (hamstring), 2022 (wrist), 2023 (right patellar), and as mentioned previously, 2024. But just two seasons ago, Kepler hit 24 home runs and a 12.2% Barrel%, both of which were impressive.
Kepler had a four-stretch of 17+ home run seasons from 2016-19. His career was 36 on the “Bomba Squad” Twins, during the home run-crazy 2019 season.
The 31-year-old Kepler fit in quite nicely on a Twins team filled with flashy hitters with pop. Kepler has above-average power, is a pull-heavy hitter who looks to get the ball just out in front. Kepler is more of a line-drive hitter, with above-average LD% in 2023-24. His swing (7.4”) is long by MLB standards but very reasonable for a 6’4” hitter.
Add in a good eye — Kepler is above-average in terms of chases — and Kepler is a player who can avoid strikeouts and get on base. Even though his walk numbers were down in 2023-24, he walked more than 10% in every season between 2018-22.
A left-handed hitter, Kepler had trouble against left-handed pitchers for the early portions of his MLB career. That turned in recent years, as Kepler’s been more productive against same-sided pitchers of late. Kepler actually had a higher OPS against LHP than RHP two years ago and in 2023, held his own.
- 2023 vs. LHP: .250/.320/.432, 4 HR and 7 XBH over 97 PA
- 2023 vs RHP: .263/.335/.497, 20 HR and 41 XBH over 394 PA
Defensively, Kepler spent brief time throughout his career playing in center at first base. He’s mainly been a right fielder and a good one at that. Kepler’s rated as an above-average fielder in terms of range for years, most recently a +12 Outs Above Average in 2022. Kepler’s arm strength also ranked as above-average (67th percentile) per Statcast.
Per reports, the Phillies signed Max Kepler to a one-year deal, worth $10MM.
Analysis
On the surface, this isn’t a bad move whatsoever for the Phillies.
It’s a short-term deal for an outfielder who had a down year and dealt with injuries, and Kepler will have a chance to rebound on a team that’ll provide him protection in the lineup.
However, one interesting note here is that heading into the winter, the Phillies opted not to tender OF Austin Hays a contract. Hays suffered a left hamstring strain and kidney infection while in Philadelphia and only hit .256/.275/.397 (.672 OPS) as a Phillie. The 29-year-old was acquired to be a right-handed hitting complement for their other outfielders. But, it didn’t work out.
As noted earlier, Kepler can hit left-handed pitching. It’s an important sticking point here. However, another interesting note here is Kepler’s never played a game in left field in his MLB career. Kepler has a career +66 Outs Above Average in the outfield, and his arm strength makes him an ideal right fielder.
Thus, the Phillies should be able to get creative with lineup construction. Primarily, Nick Castellanos played in right field, while Kyle Schwarber was the DH. Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas usually manned left and center, respectively, while Weston Wilson emerged as a solid depth outfielder.
The Phillies could get creative with that depth, either with a subsequent move or with platoon situations.
Lastly, the move ends Kepler’s tenure with the Twins. Minnesota has depth as far as left-handed hitting outfielders are concerned, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner under contact. With Minnesota likely to keep payroll trim in 2025, $10MM on Kepler didn’t seem practical.